Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26716fc2f1cfcafe4f7c1ba9b748c56c3bd943170f6ef0648bca34e4b89adf2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2745…055ebacked No | 1c | 3,247$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 61c | 802.62$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.62 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 583$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 33c | 500.38$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.55 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 42c | 500$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 36c | 467$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 64c | 361.52$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.23 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 68c | 355.25$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.25 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 69c | 346.7$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 31c | 326.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 57c | 325$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 38c | 283.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 33c | 271.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 61c | 264.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…c799backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 65c | 192.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed No | 68c | 176.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 31c | 165.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc162…40bbbacked Yes | 39c | 150.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 69c | 145.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e9…4d23backed Yes | 36c | 138.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 64c | 126.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7652…1aa8backed Yes | 41c | 123.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 33c | 121$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2ff8backed No | 68c | 113.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 43c | 110.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 31c | 108.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed No | 66c | 105.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 63c | 78.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 38c | 75.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +271%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 60c | 73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 29c | 70.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…0da7backed Yes | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 67c | 59.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 30c | 54.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed No | 69c | 50.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 37c | 41.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 32c | 32.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes | 39c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…5a2dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f6…76b2backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed No | 70c | 28.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09cf…e8f8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.