Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5295bde0725c2ccf877c262ba2c3c0e01bb7fc63ba0a71088dd472cf76bd1d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc962…5502backed Yes | 3c | 1,242$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 50c | 992$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…8c78backed Yes | 30c | 799.55$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 46c | 564.26$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.84 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 70c | 452$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 352.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 57c | 303.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.86 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 66c | 262.07$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4347…62bcbacked No | 71c | 254.23$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 40c | 248.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 44c | 246.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 33c | 240$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 67c | 240$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 55c | 228$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 45c | 221.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 67c | 207$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 55c | 201.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 39c | 190$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 46c | 155.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 35c | 152.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 64c | 136.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 126$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 47c | 117.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 47c | 115.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 58c | 114.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…a9eabacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 99.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 35c | 88.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 70c | 68.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 46c | 65.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 54c | 62.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f3…576abacked Yes | 63c | 57.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed No | 39c | 56.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…25c7backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 33c | 46.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Yes | 76c | 46.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 63c | 45.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 70c | 45.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…8211backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5a…a624backed Yes | 66c | 38.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 61c | 28.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 54c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.