Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577a2f7936ad74916293156366f456abbbdb726b4030dc5f11674151d6be6c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 1c | 5,011$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…5e27backed Yes | 53c | 945.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…f1d3backed No | 45c | 714.16$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 507.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 46c | 500$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 46c | 478.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 64c | 473$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.44 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 51c | 393.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed Yes | 43c | 373.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 51c | 312.18$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 299.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 48c | 244.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 60c | 240.02$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 48c | 239.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 43c | 225.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 60c | 208$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 48c | 206.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…4deebacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 36c | 188.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 80c | 181.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 59c | 169.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc2…b496backed Yes | 42c | 154.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked No | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 31c | 137.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 56c | 136$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 42c | 130.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 63c | 127.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 51c | 119.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 35c | 112.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…c6ddbacked No | 43c | 112.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 30c | 109.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…0047backed No | 39c | 107.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…659cbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…aa26backed Yes | 64c | 93.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 52c | 85.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 50c | 79.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed Yes | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked No | 46c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 56c | 70.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed Yes | 51c | 67.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 48c | 52.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…1a1abacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked No | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…655dbacked Yes | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…eba1backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 52c | 36.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes | 67c | 34.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…0becbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2ff8backed No | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…d016backed No | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…66afbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…c0c8backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…3c7ebacked Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.