TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69018745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7222…3d80backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfef9…5e27backed No67c741.59$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes41c620.45$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.072157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked No61c568.51$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.37825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d7a…76eebacked No59c499.99$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes39c499.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.994143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes38c499.95$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.978332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes40c481.84$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes29c440.38$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.77626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes51c434.19$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71f…43b4backed No55c429.01$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes40c404.37$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.578142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…f622backed No60c372.55$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes43c336.43$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.885837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…8ab1backed No62c320.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes48c307.59$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.25844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes72c294.68$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.823663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7600…3eecbacked Yes38c281.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.784100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+562.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes37c261.66$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.894557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No55c260.73$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.793240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No37c256.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.754427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3e…c621backed No62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes42c249.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9912619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes41c224.98$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.996750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes37c222$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.867739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes35c220.77$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.713360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes48c210$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No33c202.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4347…e0f8backed No63c199.35$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…4deebacked No63c198$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.741020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No59c169.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No55c152.57$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.912412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed No59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No54c141$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.144226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed No55c132.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9750%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes46c126$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.041060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79b6…c799backed Yes45c119.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed No53c99.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes38c99.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.316241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No53c99.3$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.63156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-88.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes43c98.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.918536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No63c93.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.664942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked No55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x203e…a9b5backed Yes41c85.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe480…ae5fbacked No59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No69c80.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2119638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.24856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-78.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes40c77.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.878749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed3…07c9backed No64c77.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes35c75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.75944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No69c72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7613673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes31c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.54772.3%34 W · 13 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes46c69.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.798544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No50c65.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.787129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96e4…f323backed No54c64.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes39c62.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.865129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed No51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No41c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.411854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed No54c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x624d…4322backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368839.8%35 W · 53 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+141.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes70c57.12$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.741,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes37c53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.398253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No75c52.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262520%5 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbcb1…6240backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes44c49.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked No58c49.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe53c…5a2dbacked Yes36c49.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No51c49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23e9…024dbacked No52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes44c45.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.67560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x731c…a252backed No55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09cf…e8f8backed No57c45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No57c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.281643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed No61c43.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.47825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e8…b58ebacked No59c40.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked No63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1c…2bccbacked No66c39.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes40c39.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bd3…929bbacked No52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa6…db93backed No66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked No53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914a…1c86backed Yes53c37.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91f…57f5backed Yes42c37.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.541040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0006…5906backed No54c36.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.