Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d76ac16f83a2ad842c82d73ca807baa941b9a523389850f7b2270fed109d48a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7222…3d80backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…5e27backed No | 67c | 741.59$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 41c | 620.45$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.07 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 61c | 568.51$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…76eebacked No | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 39c | 499.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 38c | 499.95$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.97 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 40c | 481.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.31 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 29c | 440.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.77 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 51c | 434.19$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…43b4backed No | 55c | 429.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 40c | 404.37$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.57 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…f622backed No | 60c | 372.55$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 43c | 336.43$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.88 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed No | 62c | 320.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 48c | 307.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 72c | 294.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…3eecbacked Yes | 38c | 281.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +562.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 37c | 261.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.89 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 55c | 260.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 37c | 256.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 41c | 224.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 37c | 222$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 35c | 220.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.71 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 48c | 210$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 202.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4347…e0f8backed No | 63c | 199.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…4deebacked No | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 59c | 169.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 55c | 152.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 54c | 141$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…0047backed No | 55c | 132.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes | 46c | 126$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…c799backed Yes | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 38c | 99.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 53c | 99.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 43c | 98.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 63c | 93.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…ae5fbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 80.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…e5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 40c | 77.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 64c | 77.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 31c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 50c | 65.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…f323backed No | 54c | 64.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 39c | 62.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes | 70c | 57.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 75c | 52.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…5a2dbacked Yes | 36c | 49.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…024dbacked No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 44c | 45.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09cf…e8f8backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed No | 61c | 43.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…b58ebacked No | 59c | 40.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked No | 66c | 39.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…929bbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…db93backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 53c | 37.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed Yes | 42c | 37.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…5906backed No | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.