Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677e68d9a76b0c7b2e5d8173cb073f72ad459eae1d34d6f7ec55baba72044e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d6c…e2f4backed No | 1c | 15,930$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 67c | 2,797$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 76c | 2,436$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.72 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 44c | 2,321$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 63c | 2,100$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 44c | 1,050$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 938.01$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.68 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 36c | 807$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.45 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 36c | 801.73$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 37c | 800$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 35c | 678.15$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.87 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 64c | 582.98$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 69c | 567.1$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked Yes | 66c | 525.6$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 437.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 32c | 324.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 33c | 299.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 38c | 261.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…3214backed No | 39c | 253.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 36c | 247.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 34c | 219.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2ff8backed No | 35c | 159$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e92…9ec0backed Yes | 64c | 154.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…25c7backed No | 33c | 150.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 61c | 149.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…7ad0backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 34c | 148.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…1a1abacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…0034backed No | 35c | 144.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 141.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed No | 37c | 135.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 50c | 129.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed No | 34c | 129.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 36c | 121.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 68c | 117.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…dbecbacked Yes | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…a3c3backed Yes | 59c | 108.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…4b08backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed Yes | 65c | 99.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 54c | 97.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…fec2backed Yes | 68c | 96.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…381ebacked Yes | 64c | 93.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 66c | 90.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 37c | 76.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…07f2backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…dac2backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…4ebabacked No | 35c | 64.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed Yes | 63c | 63.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…6381backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked No | 35c | 61.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…f9edbacked No | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 56c | 59.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbab7…e872backed Yes | 67c | 55.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…3347backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9139…05a1backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 37c | 50.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…f1d3backed No | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…1ee8backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…b58ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 35c | 43.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…25bcbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ba…e279backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed No | 31c | 41.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…5f22backed Yes | 60c | 41.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 26c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…1254backed Yes | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…b6afbacked Yes | 74c | 36.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 35c | 34.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked No | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 57c | 30.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Yes | 64c | 30.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.