Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0609ce7699e469beb88156d5b5a2f38262303328b9f9c4c65575478ab78de82

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,022 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	11,094$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes	61c	3,490$2,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,134.2	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1710…3344backed No	40c	3,325$1,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,985.18	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No	33c	2,765$924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,841.89	119	36.1%43 W · 76 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	45c	2,750$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,519.64	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes	6c	2,454$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.54	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	36c	1,002$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640.98	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+8.5wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa455…4ebabacked Yes	60c	953.34$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No	45c	895.62$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.39	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+6.0wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfef9…5e27backed Yes	64c	777.38$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	62cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dda…649cbacked Yes	59c	698.21$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.71	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	55c	581.81$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.3	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	37c	567.68$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.36	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No	36c	531.31$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes	59c	506.63$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No	40c	500$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	326	26.4%86 W · 240 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No	40c	500$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.1	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No	34c	488.69$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.02	395	22.8%90 W · 305 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	42c	487.85$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.07	184	45.1%83 W · 101 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	68c	487.8$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.95	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes	64c	466.42$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c2…f1d3backed No	44c	427.19$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.26	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89bf…8349backed Yes	57c	420.43$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb13b…8feabacked Yes	23c	420$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No	42c	415.8$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.07	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked No	78c	350$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes	57c	348.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes	57c	348$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.04	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…5e66backed Yes	54c	325.44$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.38	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…1acdbacked No	41c	315.97$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.4	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes	72c	299$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.3	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17b7…4ca3backed Yes	64c	298.19$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No	38c	296.3$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.71	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No	39c	294.34$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.5	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe591…0f80backed No	40c	276.45$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.45	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+151.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	13c	268.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.97	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+11.4wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+179.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No	29c	249.49$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.6	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+7.0wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+75.9%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes	56c	224$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.44	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-4.5wins	-0.16per pick	62cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes	63c	211.68$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.9	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked No	38c	200$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…4deebacked Yes	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes	70c	200$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+4.5wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes	58c	173.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	39c	167.3$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.55	135	56.3%76 W · 59 L	+13.4wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes	60c	165.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	40cpaid	-53%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ed3…07c9backed Yes	60c	165.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.19per pick	43cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c5a…a624backed Yes	62c	161.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	+105.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…7a52backed Yes	63c	159.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5982…fd3ebacked Yes	64c	155.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x274c…4372backed Yes	65c	153.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No	39c	150$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.2	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee41…68cdbacked Yes	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes	73c	150$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.91	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes	65c	145.05$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No	40c	128.93$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.38	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	78c	128.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2745…055ebacked Yes	20c	123.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes	54c	122$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.18	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	58c	115.61$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.61	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	67c	110.37$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.43	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29bf…08a1backed Yes	63c	110$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb983…74fabacked Yes	63c	101.59$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+6.0wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Yes	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	42c	99.98$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.99	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed No	49c	96.72$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.86	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes	65c	90$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a40…a062backed Yes	56c	89.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d94…3617backed Yes	60c	88.55$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	62c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No	25c	78.05$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.69	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-3.9wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82c1…21aabacked Yes	66c	77.92$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No	40c	77.34$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa628…fbecbacked Yes	66c	75.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed No	33c	74.09$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.89	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No	39c	70$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.84	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+4.6wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	44c	69.82$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.9	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes	59c	66$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.94	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	69c	62.96$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.51	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes	58c	60$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	62cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8233…b8febacked No	36c	58.53$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No	44c	57$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.92	136	73.5%100 W · 36 L	+28.4wins	+0.21per pick	53cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	34c	53$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.98	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa4c…1254backed Yes	57c	52.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6d…2bfabacked Yes	59c	50.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914a…1c86backed Yes	60c	50.29$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf91f…57f5backed No	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5819…f3a3backed No	35c	50$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdea4…15dbbacked Yes	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ce9…24f0backed Yes	66c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70e7…de91backed No	23c	49.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.49	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1f…6823backed Yes	64c	46.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed Yes	59c	46.44$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-21%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	68c	44.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event