Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde5bc6ec7c5129d7242a0564bed246be9c892038a37f6a51cdcac2f41b0c74a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,181$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.24 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…7858backed Yes | 4c | 4,055$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,785$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 4c | 2,399$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,841$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…4ebabacked Yes | 7c | 1,805$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…5390backed Yes | 6c | 1,732$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…67dabacked Yes | 8c | 1,643$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…8c80backed Yes | 6c | 1,568$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…45debacked Yes | 4c | 1,480$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Yes | 5c | 1,310$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…a3c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,267$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…afb3backed Yes | 6c | 1,216$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbb…9355backed Yes | 5c | 1,046$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…abf8backed Yes | 5c | 1,011$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2676…7b08backed Yes | 5c | 999.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…81e2backed Yes | 2c | 771.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…1ee8backed Yes | 7c | 709.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…655dbacked Yes | 6c | 675.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 7c | 586.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 7c | 576.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 7c | 526.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…bde0backed Yes | 6c | 468.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 5c | 468.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3560backed Yes | 5c | 422.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 6c | 406.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…bc95backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…6306backed Yes | 6c | 352.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe137…3f2cbacked Yes | 3c | 340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…d4a5backed Yes | 7c | 283.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 6c | 247.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 5c | 236.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…ebb8backed Yes | 7c | 212.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 6c | 211.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…460cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…9cbabacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…3e50backed Yes | 7c | 160.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed Yes | 8c | 158.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.