Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cca94ece4825e52c9ed4ac773840dbc84aaa4e0eb0991df33d7a902c51a852d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,456 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x25e5…769ebacked No	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	14c	1,092$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.23	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No	18c	554.93$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No	27c	548.68$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.07	119	36.1%43 W · 76 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	22c	424.04$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.57	320	29.1%93 W · 227 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	19.8%25 W · 101 L	-8.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed Yes	77c	322.43$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.4	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed No	27c	303.65$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.69	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No	22c	300$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	326	26.4%86 W · 240 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	20c	299.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	184	45.1%83 W · 101 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes	72c	279.98$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.39	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	22c	200$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+10.5wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b52…654bbacked Yes	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes	76c	197.64$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.64	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No	18c	183$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.94	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes	79c	171.66$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.27	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	21c	159.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	135	56.3%76 W · 59 L	+13.4wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No	20c	139.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes	74c	134.66$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.01	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-4.5wins	-0.16per pick	62cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ed3…07c9backed No	20c	127.88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.19per pick	43cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	22c	127.09$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	85	36.5%31 W · 54 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf295…b02ebacked Yes	80c	125.1$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe05…494dbacked No	25c	120.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No	18c	119.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89d5…591bbacked Yes	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…05a5backed No	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes	77c	99.99$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	20c	99.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4531…25c7backed No	23c	86.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes	79c	78$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	26	73.1%19 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes	78c	77.01$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.01	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-60%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…5e66backed No	28c	71.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdea4…15dbbacked No	25c	69.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes	75c	66.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.98	86	43%37 W · 49 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…c7e3backed Yes	75c	62$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	72cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	76c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No	21c	56.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No	24c	55.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No	20c	51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes	75c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No	22c	46.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	24c	43.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9450…a00abacked Yes	76c	43.42$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb818…9875backed Yes	78c	41.36$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.1	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	71c	36.72$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.65	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae82…8de7backed Yes	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes	73c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86aa…a85bbacked Yes	78c	25.76$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.76	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49bc…9b34backed Yes	78c	25.35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.58	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes	79c	25.19$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d6d…2bfabacked Yes	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes	75c	24.76$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes	77c	21.68$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.99	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-3.1wins	-0.23per pick	54cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed Yes	76c	19.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.74	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes	80c	15.63$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.13	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9fc…e0f1backed Yes	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.27per pick	33cpaid	+113%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event