Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bdf7cf86de2fc64d7196b7a31aad4d0d94e31827994c4f10428ca7dd2bca9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,588$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 36c | 1,064$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.22 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ded…6fd9backed Yes | 1c | 744.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 739.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 66c | 629.06$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 38c | 498.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 49c | 406.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 404.01$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 77c | 365.61$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 61c | 263.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 39c | 253.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…b6afbacked Yes | 37c | 243.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 36c | 224.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 62c | 219$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…4ca3backed Yes | 36c | 210.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 38c | 209.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 37c | 203.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 58c | 203.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 63c | 200.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 62c | 199$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 63c | 179.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked Yes | 35c | 177.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 70c | 175$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed No | 63c | 158.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 34c | 156.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 66c | 152.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…25c7backed No | 66c | 150.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 63c | 149.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 67c | 148.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…5f22backed Yes | 21c | 140.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 24c | 135.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 134.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 35c | 103.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 74c | 91.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…463cbacked Yes | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 66c | 76.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed No | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…a3d6backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…d58bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 53c | 55.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…28febacked Yes | 38c | 52.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 63c | 48.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…4c91backed No | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 64c | 36.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 33c | 34.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 63c | 34.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…044abacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…769ebacked No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…e5c6backed Yes | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 59c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…3347backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.