Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafbc0950fd808684b00ce0273f2f84ca52b5971747daa639e91c313d7b09ddce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 63c | 1,143$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 9c | 777$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 71c | 750$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 7c | 608.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 44c | 451.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 437$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…8feabacked Yes | 25c | 393.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 69c | 354$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 40c | 297.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 56c | 293$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 24c | 251$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 39c | 249.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 36c | 243.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 40c | 235.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…5437backed Yes | 47c | 203.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 38c | 191.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 60c | 165.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 50c | 163.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed No | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 144.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 57c | 138$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 57c | 133.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…659cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 55c | 91.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4372backed Yes | 55c | 90.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 66c | 83.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 39c | 81.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 59c | 73.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 36c | 68.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…6381backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce9…24f0backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 60c | 59.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…68cdbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f232backed No | 44c | 48.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 35c | 46.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed No | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…1254backed Yes | 56c | 42.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 49c | 37.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…3347backed No | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…2bfabacked Yes | 42c | 35.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…929bbacked No | 60c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…bc20backed Yes | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f6…76b2backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes | 40c | 31.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f3…576abacked Yes | 46c | 30.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 41c | 29.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…fa42backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.