Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d021dcb450c5b86e33ae9e7f96c4588d5070ee1c747c68405ce3df5fa2e3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,008$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 24c | 498.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 320.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 75c | 265$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 25c | 143.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 72c | 139.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 71c | 137.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…769ebacked Yes | 35c | 115.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 70c | 110.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ac42backed Yes | 23c | 87.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 69.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 78c | 63.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 25c | 55.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 62c | 51.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…d4a5backed Yes | 28c | 49.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 25c | 47.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf194…f48fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…044abacked Yes | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 51c | 35.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 78c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…8de7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2ff8backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 80c | 24.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d4…69abbacked No | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.