TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4326…c3a8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
367
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT17434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 174 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+79.3%+$30.96
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$127.34
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$14.23
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+527%+$67.24
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$36.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.07
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+175.2%+$95.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$554.72
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,087Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+137.2%+$1,491.48
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.15
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+67.1%+$356.91
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,088Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$558.34
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$14.4
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$16.2
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.4
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$339.33
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.35
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.36
Showing 25 of 174 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$208
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$52.28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.94
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+60%+$150
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$598.05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$23.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+99.3%+$149.45
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$482
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$62.33
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,372Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,371.8
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$78.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,079Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$720.47
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.44
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+115.4%+$262.13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.54
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.47
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,439Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$368.43
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,951Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+219.3%+$6,470
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$157.15
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+139.7%+$816
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,538Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,538
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+32.2%+$1,344.76
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$489.59
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,710Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,710.49
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+86.9%+$18.6
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+365.1%+$62.8
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+172.9%+$248.11
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+35.1%+$15.6
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+48.1%+$6.5
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.36
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$207.7
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.9
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+44.9%+$6.2
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+119.8%+$54.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+25.2%+$12.85
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.5
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$63.17
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$950.26
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$868Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+36%+$312.44
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.1
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.8
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+44%+$76.42
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.4
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,506Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,505.73
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,032Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$368
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,010Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$1,192.27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+50%+$307.84
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$62.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$795Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$219.9
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+77%+$17.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,574Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,574.47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,107.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,623Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$1,476.81
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,859Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$1,018.73
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,039Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,038.89
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.67
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$212.49
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,856Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+32.8%+$608.58
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$196.6
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$172.52
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$197.83
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will UpScrolled be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$527.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+84.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+201.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AZ win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+94.2%+$19.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Virtu Financial (VIRT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$17.7
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southampton FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$44.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Catherine Connolly win by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.