AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e43ab7e2963103ca8ac39a254fe1125801597acb70cf74138131d7aada70cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 5,053$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 46c | 3,327$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.34 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,718$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 33c | 1,510$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.45 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed Yes | 22c | 1,301$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 54c | 1,055$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.39 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 11c | 965.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 4c | 918.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 20c | 880$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 31c | 679.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 631.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 22c | 599.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 567.74$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 33c | 536.38$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 489$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 441.87$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 18c | 425.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 65c | 405.15$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…64fabacked Yes | 55c | 401.03$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 4c | 365.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 345.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 42c | 330$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…a82cbacked Yes | 9c | 308.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 299.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 299.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 11c | 292.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 284.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 72c | 278.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 12c | 270.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed No | 32c | 270.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.95 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 36c | 190.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 28c | 183.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 66c | 161.2$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 77c | 155.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 57c | 147.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 128.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 61c | 122.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 115.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 37c | 110.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf196…326ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 26c | 91.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…d0ccbacked Yes | 22c | 91.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked No | 32c | 83.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes | 67c | 81.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 77.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 19c | 70.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 67c | 70.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 29c | 63.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…1886backed No | 74c | 62.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 56.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 55.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…b668backed No | 72c | 51.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 62c | 48.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…5a9bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.