AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87023c4c5b90d9afb7968df807c52fe3a13569b9208f9d1ea49a7480728e77b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 10,451$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…3d81backed Yes | 1c | 6,206$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 18c | 1,762$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…4545backed Yes | 2c | 1,618$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 13c | 1,347$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.57 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 22c | 999.66$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 8c | 791.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 14c | 563.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 20c | 478$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 43c | 431$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…5a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 388.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 7c | 360.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 347.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes | 9c | 323.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 22c | 193.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 185.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 33c | 166.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 165.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 121.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 99.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 59.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 55.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…92e1backed Yes | 36c | 54.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +605.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…9df2backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 61c | 23.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.