TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6469…c029

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.19
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.7
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,388Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$409.51
Claude 4.7 released by April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.2
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.11
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.1
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$105.69
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.7
ChatGPT Outage by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.5
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+102.8%+$71.47
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$67
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.62
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$332.99
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.63
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$887Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$886.99
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+163.3%+$434.09
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+258.4%+$144.2
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$243.16
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+83.7%+$55.14
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+31%+$72.12
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$17.76
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.43per pick56cpaid-81.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+173.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$812Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$812.5
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81%+$336.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$103.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked ULF Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.