AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cac920cc49ff2cfecd852d90acaf8a86ea5d73cfca283dc6c91fcd305045042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,680 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,897$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.82 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 1,856$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.14 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 8c | 1,590$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 6c | 1,578$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 10c | 1,387$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 7c | 799.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 5c | 661.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 3c | 563.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 559.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 6c | 550.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked Yes | 7c | 413.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…5e03backed Yes | 10c | 327.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 15c | 295.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…dfffbacked Yes | 24c | 282.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 273.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 10c | 234.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Yes | 10c | 200.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 160.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…2390backed Yes | 32c | 156.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…22b2backed Yes | 11c | 128.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…da45backed Yes | 10c | 100.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 81.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked No | 69c | 75.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…e698backed Yes | 21c | 68.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 25c | 62.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 77c | 45.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?this page
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will RadarOmega: Doppler Radar App be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?Yes won
- Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.