AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf4e87bf819d4c21dd1fe8f565ca25c5a748bb432ea93b996cc8f9e40eeeacd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,075 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,612$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 26c | 873.12$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.21 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 69c | 616.9$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.9 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 12c | 419.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 388.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 7c | 370.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…6e80backed Yes | 74c | 325.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 25c | 306.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 17c | 302.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…f4b2backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 8c | 281.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…6865backed Yes | 72c | 267.42$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 24c | 264.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 262.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked No | 12c | 233.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 69c | 194.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 8c | 187.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 28c | 135.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 110.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 13c | 107.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 79c | 101.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…cc3abacked No | 28c | 93.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 12c | 87.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…0955backed No | 17c | 86.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 78.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…7818backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Yes | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c8…b6f7backed Yes | 77c | 59.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…2cb2backed Yes | 78c | 58.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…089abacked Yes | 76c | 52.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…4cbfbacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked Yes | 70c | 40.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…5ed2backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…571abacked Yes | 74c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed Yes | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…28c7backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…5753backed Yes | 79c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 69c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…d8f1backed Yes | 70c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…b935backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 70c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…e8e3backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…664abacked Yes | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…adcdbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 79cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will RadarOmega: Doppler Radar App be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.