Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5ea69b6c75c608a269c97eaca8d2c1ddbe9f01a788aa7082678fe5839efae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,130,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,130,551 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81dd…5f71backed Yes | 1c | 376,056$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,897.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 225,208$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…194ebacked Yes | 0c | 135,136$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 0c | 121,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 0c | 69,729$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…867fbacked Yes | 0c | 56,910$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…5f83backed Yes | 0c | 48,365$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…a90bbacked Yes | 1c | 26,958$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad54…aa13backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Yes | 25c | 22,754$5,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,587.34 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 0c | 21,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 3c | 20,737$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…f77ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed Yes | 0c | 19,210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 53c | 18,251$9,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,601 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 16c | 16,114$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.56 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…0077backed Yes | 1c | 14,355$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…23dbbacked Yes | 0c | 13,983$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 26c | 12,347$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250.22 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 52c | 12,028$6,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766.66 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…c44fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,997$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 63c | 10,000$6,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,290 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,519$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…74bebacked Yes | 0c | 8,568$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,371$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.96 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes | 18c | 8,121$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 6c | 8,111$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.93 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 40c | 7,688$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…8aeebacked Yes | 0c | 7,514$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 56c | 6,295$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.51 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 59c | 5,954$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.45 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed No | 72c | 5,887$4,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 78c | 5,728$4,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.33 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb128…cf58backed Yes | 28c | 5,252$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 5,221$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.79 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 48c | 5,129$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.37 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 70c | 5,059$3,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.9 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…6a3cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 35c | 4,882$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.22 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 44c | 4,778$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked No | 80c | 4,468$3,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.24 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…ad36backed Yes | 0c | 4,424$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…d70dbacked No | 68c | 4,235$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed No | 49c | 4,009$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.66 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 51c | 3,966$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.32 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 65c | 3,906$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.75 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 28c | 3,639$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.54 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 54c | 3,501$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.46 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 54c | 3,283$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.1 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 28c | 3,273$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.08 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…1153backed Yes | 0c | 3,263$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 15c | 3,207$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.27 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 5c | 3,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 47c | 3,117$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.96 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…c55bbacked No | 72c | 3,000$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,998$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 56c | 2,875$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…9274backed Yes | 1c | 2,869$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,781$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed Yes | 4c | 2,670$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed No | 75c | 2,660$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 53c | 2,634$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked No | 79c | 2,415$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.39 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 37c | 2,336$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 80c | 2,327$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.98 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc843…fbe2backed Yes | 1c | 2,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 68c | 2,045$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.92 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…cb46backed Yes | 3c | 1,919$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 59c | 1,874$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 51c | 1,836$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.7 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 61c | 1,807$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.57 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 28c | 1,800$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.17 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 68c | 1,725$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.36 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 56c | 1,725$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 64c | 1,675$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.5 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 54c | 1,671$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.35 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 44c | 1,641$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.58 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 23c | 1,632$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.31 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 79c | 1,576$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.47 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…0721backed Yes | 64c | 1,551$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…1910backed No | 74c | 1,524$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 2c | 1,501$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 43c | 1,500$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.83 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 68c | 1,499$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.33 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 31c | 1,492$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…9175backed No | 76c | 1,369$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 1,337$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.91 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed No | 70c | 1,227$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 66c | 1,219$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.76 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 48c | 1,217$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.61 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,175$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 1,143$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.84 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 6c | 1,102$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.01 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,058$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…6aeabacked Yes | 55c | 1,031$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.08 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.