TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,130,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,130,551 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x81dd…5f71backed Yes1c376,056$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.391010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-75.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes0c225,208$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…194ebacked Yes0c135,136$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.42035%7 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick25cpaid-3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes0c121,000$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1433616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x272f…164fbacked Yes0c120,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+279.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes0c69,729$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.78110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked Yes0c56,910$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ee…5f83backed Yes0c48,365$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…a90bbacked Yes1c26,958$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.71540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad54…aa13backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed Yes25c22,754$5,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,587.342927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0e…3165backed Yes0c21,300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+210%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bcb…725abacked Yes3c20,737$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7242821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae9…f77ebacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed Yes0c19,210$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.488744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1caa…46a0backed Yes53c18,251$9,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6011030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes16c16,114$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.5617414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97d…0077backed Yes1c14,355$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…23dbbacked Yes0c13,983$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes26c12,347$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.2215338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No52c12,028$6,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,766.6638247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2812…c44fbacked Yes2c10,997$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0e…06f9backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Yes63c10,000$6,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,290425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6712…467bbacked Yes0c9,519$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.37210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb43…74bebacked Yes0c8,568$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick2cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes2c8,371$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9612040%48 W · 72 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes18c8,121$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.291145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c95…d680backed Yes6c8,111$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.932544%11 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No40c7,688$3,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,57932243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a01…8aeebacked Yes0c7,514$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No56c6,295$3,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,755.5119648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes0c6,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No59c5,954$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.4513544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed No72c5,887$4,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.95850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No78c5,728$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.3351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb128…cf58backed Yes28c5,252$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.792259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c5,221$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.7958927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked No48c5,129$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.3710838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No70c5,059$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.913246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8a…6a3cbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes35c4,882$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.2248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes44c4,778$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked No80c4,468$3,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.243764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8ca7…ad36backed Yes0c4,424$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd71…d70dbacked No68c4,235$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.153253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9725backed No49c4,009$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.665335.8%19 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No51c3,966$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.3213950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No65c3,906$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.7525843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked No28c3,639$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.545942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked No54c3,501$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.467938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No54c3,283$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.14126.8%11 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No28c3,273$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.0829653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ad0…1153backed Yes0c3,263$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+45.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes15c3,207$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.2711334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes5c3,200$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed No47c3,117$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.967150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8ad7…c55bbacked No72c3,000$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8491040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,998$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.214769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked No56c2,875$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.313834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2573…9274backed Yes1c2,869$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes12c2,781$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.243650%18 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x899c…e884backed Yes4c2,670$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.09210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed No75c2,660$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.061450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd1…6feebacked No53c2,634$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.281735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31f2…f75fbacked No79c2,415$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.392259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+30%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No37c2,336$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.752944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92a6…8b84backed No80c2,327$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.983070%21 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc843…fbe2backed Yes1c2,070$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981921.1%4 W · 15 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick48cpaid-66.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No68c2,045$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.924348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b71…cb46backed Yes3c1,919$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ab…84f7backed Yes59c1,874$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.431241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No51c1,836$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.731344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No61c1,807$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.579057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes28c1,800$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.173315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8179…4403backed No68c1,725$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.364555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed No56c1,725$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.792250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No64c1,675$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.55623.2%13 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes54c1,671$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.3514854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No44c1,641$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.5814827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes23c1,632$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3112023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No79c1,576$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.4720438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa49…0721backed Yes64c1,551$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…1910backed No74c1,524$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes2c1,501$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.612330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked No43c1,500$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.833420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed No68c1,499$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.337350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes31c1,492$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.971070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf03…9175backed No76c1,369$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c1,337$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed No70c1,227$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.981353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes66c1,219$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.762133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+133.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No48c1,217$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.6116041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes11c1,175$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.74287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No28c1,143$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.8430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No6c1,102$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.0120617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Yes29c1,058$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.712240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf03…6aeabacked Yes55c1,031$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.084156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.