Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa258d1725c76be806ae8fc6ff309af47d331a834c606ba5acd7ffb6acde12ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,554$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked No | 1c | 1,740$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,390$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 5c | 1,275$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 5c | 1,233$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 15c | 739.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 2c | 682.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 14c | 439.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…532abacked No | 6c | 399.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…eda1backed No | 3c | 343.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 332.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…a90bbacked No | 4c | 278.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed No | 8c | 276.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked Yes | 78c | 256.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 15c | 241.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 6c | 213.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 199.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cc…e9a2backed No | 22c | 180.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…049dbacked No | 8c | 173.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe1…fa45backed Yes | 79c | 134.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 14c | 117.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked No | 10c | 100.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…0eacbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…723dbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…3425backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed No | 20c | 99.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 85.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…87d9backed Yes | 76c | 71.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 71.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked Yes | 79c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…c19bbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 68c | 57.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 24c | 56.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 78c | 53.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…519abacked No | 23c | 45.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 75c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 73c | 39.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…ee61backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…417dbacked Yes | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…3e33backed Yes | 80c | 23.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d7…b428backed Yes | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.