Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53da43937e38f3e09977827ac9b450018d10ee599be6a3d270791d1104b61f2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 4c | 5,438$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 7c | 3,509$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,234$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 9c | 1,951$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed No | 3c | 1,769$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 1,612$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed No | 1c | 1,438$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 4c | 1,336$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 4c | 1,178$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 12c | 1,170$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb93c…c121backed No | 16c | 896.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 850$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 772.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 12c | 673.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…2d86backed No | 3c | 610$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…b30fbacked No | 13c | 608.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 21c | 499.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 17c | 473.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…dda0backed No | 11c | 465.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…f32bbacked No | 7c | 457.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed No | 5c | 433.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…c7a1backed No | 12c | 411.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…0633backed No | 15c | 384.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 4c | 369.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…6984backed No | 5c | 290.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 274.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 77c | 272.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 7c | 249.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed No | 18c | 225.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 75c | 225.33$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 207.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 72c | 199.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 5c | 196.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…cae3backed No | 7c | 189.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…d3b7backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 12c | 181.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aeb…f10ebacked No | 35c | 169.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 19c | 157.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…365ebacked No | 10c | 149.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed No | 9c | 143.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked Yes | 76c | 131.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…9d73backed No | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…7653backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…4115backed No | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…fafabacked No | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cab…4882backed No | 10c | 104.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bae…b3c3backed No | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…ff08backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…840bbacked No | 32c | 93.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 35c | 86.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…b034backed No | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 16c | 68.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked No | 20c | 64.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…bc08backed No | 29c | 47.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 80c | 46.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5b30backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Yes | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…5a81backed No | 35c | 39.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…c44fbacked Yes | 75c | 34.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 70c | 32.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…9b44backed Yes | 71c | 22.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.