Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2132b6675c25777c9b93c5bd6b8c1c856fce18cb5b80fb0fa7cb8b0e72e322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,401 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 0c | 13,139$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 0c | 9,767$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 1c | 7,740$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 4,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…9ae7backed No | 0c | 2,813$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 1c | 2,473$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,460$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…fa48backed No | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 4c | 510.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed No | 12c | 274.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 6c | 169$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.