TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e9a…f3bb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
251
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 60 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT8339.8%33 W · 50 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 83 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.85
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$49.6
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,039Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$2,006.96
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,563Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,563.02
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.25
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+318.4%+$64.36
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.05
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.61
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$32.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.23
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$792.41
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,251Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+213%+$2,663.68
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$476.79
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$463.47
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$957Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$956.69
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.88
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$420.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$6.87
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,454Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,453.54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$11.41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,043Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+334.4%+$3,487.76
Showing 25 of 83 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT4065%26 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Lol — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.15
LoL: EDward Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$60.5
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$78.55
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+84%+$137
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$147.39
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$1,255.73
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.86
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$138.69
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+153.4%+$938.23
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$118
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$33.14
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.2
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$55.07
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$120
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$40.8
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$64.5
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$294.63
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$60
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$402.64
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.65
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.73
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.67
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.66
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+137.3%+$68.76
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,096Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$997.8
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$3,613Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,612.93
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$234
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+71.7%+$167
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.61
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+39.3%+$192.23
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?backed Silver · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$843Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+28%+$235.77
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$42.09
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,539Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+41.5%+$1,054.48
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.2%+$189.19
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$344.69
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.68
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.73
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.95
Will Bill Clinton say "Epstein" or "Island" 10+ times during his Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$13.08
Will Bill Clinton say "Israel" during his Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+27.4%+$4.3
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+27.7%+$3.25
Will Hillary say "Victim" during her Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+32.3%+$4.15
Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+33.5%+$30.39
Will Hillary's remarks not air?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+38%+$7.98
Will Hillary say "Secretary" during her Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+40.8%+$6.72
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$617.41
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$18
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$477.15
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,469Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+42.8%+$629.1
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+85.8%+$1,716.6
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.56
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$991.81
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+134.2%+$177.47
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$839Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+32.3%+$271.09
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1275%9 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+472.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+5,564.2%+$2,520.45
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.59
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$4,304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,303.58
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$920Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$481.71
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+107.1%+$188.97
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.2%+$203.29
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$91.57
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$52.61
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43%+$106.34
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$516.24
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$120.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.22
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+458.6%+$408.72
Grok 4.4 released by July 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.26
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$126.6
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$925Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$925.15
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.56
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$45.6
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.28
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,004Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$895.23
All 10 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+85.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,567Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,566.51
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+183.1%+$353.44
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+342.9%+$127.42
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$762Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+675.4%+$5,143.61
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.1
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$130.2
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$153
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.85
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.36
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$8,387Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$2,857.19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$42.25
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+199.5%+$561.03
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$528.89
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$197.68
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$6,880Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+125.3%+$8,622.03
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$325.44
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$730.53
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+85.2%+$84.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,755Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,754.9
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.16
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.82
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+134.4%+$230.04
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.25
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$379.35
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$813Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+138.1%+$1,123.49
Republican House Odds Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,187.49
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+163.7%+$1,337.55
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.9
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.57
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.53
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$436.27
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+229.6%+$2,651.91
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+87%+$410.2
All 7 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+198.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+147%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$623Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+133%+$828.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Manziel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$15.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+48%+$225.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+42.5%+$149
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.