Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbffe7025d24426e00f97362e0903a084c31b6eedd9c294200ce87b12f7239657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 29c | 8,631$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.72 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 78c | 7,959$6,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 40c | 6,925$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,136.79 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 12c | 5,490$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,831.51 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed No | 10c | 4,427$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.01 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked No | 16c | 4,002$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,577$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.24 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed No | 35c | 2,867$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 2,487$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.42 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 33c | 1,790$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 24c | 1,679$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.9 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 23c | 1,450$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 74c | 1,247$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 14c | 1,203$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.59 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked No | 71c | 1,187$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 1,083$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.4 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked No | 60c | 1,008$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 8c | 837.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes | 62c | 827.91$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed No | 17c | 669.23$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 639.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 19c | 511.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2883…39a3backed Yes | 13c | 448.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 12c | 425.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 73c | 413.96$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 401.23$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 15c | 401.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.94 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 399.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 38c | 312.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Yes | 40c | 311.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed No | 50c | 299.28$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 290$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 281.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1000…b7b4backed No | 24c | 275$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 30cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 76c | 248.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 244$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.96 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 9c | 232.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…a0a3backed No | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…63eabacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed No | 10c | 195$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 14c | 194.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…5b82backed Yes | 16c | 151.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 18c | 144.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 25c | 132.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 121$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 32c | 120.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 118.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 99.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f125backed Yes | 14c | 78.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 32c | 70.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…3cd3backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 17c | 64.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4be2backed No | 56c | 64.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…3018backed Yes | 76c | 57.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 40c | 56.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 54c | 56.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 49.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…e89cbacked No | 25c | 45.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfc…678ebacked No | 32c | 45.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…8051backed Yes | 27c | 43.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 73c | 43.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 37.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…b2a3backed No | 64c | 28.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…4c28backed No | 57c | 27.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 24.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?this page
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?No won
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.