Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55146178c7ceb96a5f5cefd8e54a44e3b1770b191dbf5bc348647898b8ab5d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 59c | 3,711$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 31c | 2,439$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 70c | 868.47$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 23c | 370$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 58c | 346.01$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.99 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 304.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 11c | 299.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 7c | 291.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 19c | 214.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 55.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1000…b7b4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 31c | 38.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?this page
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Yes won
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?No won
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.