TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2374…f6c4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 58 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+447.7%+$91.63
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.47
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.58
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+93.1%+$85.65
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$54.1
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+159.2%+$55.7
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$67.93
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Will Piráti get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will ANO get between 27% and 30% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will ANO get less than 27% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+525%+$105
Will Starostové get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.73
Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.89
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+458.7%+$268.54
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.81
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.69
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+180.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$154.38
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$53.66
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+185.7%+$112.28
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 10% and 13% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$26.58
Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+950%+$142.41
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$33.72
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$29.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+88.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump out as President in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.75
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$32.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$112.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+203%+$71.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.