World Politics · resolved market
Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5a8970d57d7fbfd8dc6c98cc198f8c67a54ada2eebd9e7910c7bb9763815c6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 10c | 1,932$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.77 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 33c | 1,416$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.6 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.78 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,000$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 6c | 974.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.98 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 6c | 800.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.01 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 53c | 701.33$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.44 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 20c | 591.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.31 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 50c | 390$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.86 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 19c | 364.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…4e35backed Yes | 54c | 298.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…c2c0backed Yes | 39c | 293.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 283.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.38 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 75c | 280$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8883…d7edbacked Yes | 49c | 233.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 44c | 229.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…d60bbacked Yes | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed Yes | 21c | 177$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 27c | 155.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 80c | 154$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…5400backed Yes | 48c | 145.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…b515backed Yes | 52c | 126.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 107$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…b68bbacked Yes | 20c | 98.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 79c | 96.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 15c | 95.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 75c | 92.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 39c | 90.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…f0c9backed Yes | 39c | 89.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…2a62backed Yes | 38c | 65.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 67c | 60.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…d151backed Yes | 24c | 46.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…8d8dbacked No | 72c | 41.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 40.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2d…69d0backed Yes | 65c | 27.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed No | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 55c | 21.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?this page
- Will D66 win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will GL/PvdA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.