World Politics · resolved market
Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b2852e240d6dbbb2f6a480bbf5a3d2f7cbe316f21863b5b05d21b00c823ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,866$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…e615backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 927.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 557$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…9580backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…3bcdbacked Yes | 10c | 202.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d732backed Yes | 5c | 201.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +336.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6226…76f9backed Yes | 11c | 181.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…e37cbacked Yes | 18c | 113.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?this page
- Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?Yes won
- Will D66 win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will GL/PvdA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.