World Politics · resolved market
Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe924cf338f90e1d90c8ddf3bb10f2ad46e19daf886009b25712ce26cff4468f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fb…9cf8backed Yes | 67c | 1,415$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 51c | 1,357$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.51 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…2229backed Yes | 58c | 928.57$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 35c | 843.93$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.56 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 32c | 585.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.96 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 573.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.57 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 54c | 535.17$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 457.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.81 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 47c | 403$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.43 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 399.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 59c | 382.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.83 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 49c | 361.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 49c | 319.35$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 61c | 315.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 35c | 304.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 49c | 285.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.15 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 40c | 261$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 40c | 243.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 215.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…d20dbacked Yes | 50c | 201.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 58c | 199.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…60a3backed Yes | 53c | 189.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 57c | 176.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…b515backed Yes | 44c | 161.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 45c | 152$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…c2c0backed Yes | 49c | 145$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 51c | 115.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 115.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed No | 57c | 100.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…9914backed Yes | 52c | 100.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a17…7ca2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…ee09backed Yes | 48c | 87.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 68c | 74.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac4…1f20backed Yes | 47c | 74.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…cd94backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…3bcdbacked No | 58c | 68.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…b26cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…9f4cbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 56c | 52.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…68b3backed No | 56c | 51.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e26…fdefbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 41c | 49.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…74bdbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…ddf5backed Yes | 51c | 38.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…f301backed Yes | 66c | 31.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…5a43backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e3…d1febacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…b87cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…3ad7backed Yes | 66c | 16.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?this page
- Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?Yes won
- Will D66 win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will GL/PvdA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.