World Politics · resolved market
Will D66 win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd990ff3f5cef77379d72def85b8273b2e28a5fa60e42d66efc1044085d2c9875
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 26c | 1,449$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.21 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 572.2$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 57c | 522.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 25c | 456.79$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…3105backed Yes | 28c | 351.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 324.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd256…b945backed Yes | 37c | 293$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…2229backed No | 74c | 210$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 196.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…c2c0backed Yes | 17c | 182.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 47c | 181.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes | 29c | 179.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 64c | 157.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 61c | 157.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 36c | 135.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 77c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 56c | 104.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 77c | 97.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5365…f624backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…a84abacked No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D66 win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?this page
- Will CDA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?Yes won
- Will GL/PvdA win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will PVV win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
- Will VVD win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.