Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3394563aa4fb6e7df0492d0bce1dc161ffaa037df1c5da3fa6662967224e0dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked No | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed No | 1c | 9,837$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 24c | 2,441$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.95 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 79c | 2,285$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 5c | 1,991$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 15c | 1,870$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.45 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 3c | 1,761$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 58c | 1,582$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 14c | 1,450$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 13c | 775$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 71c | 736.82$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.96 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 659.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.1 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 8c | 549$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 65c | 488$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 486.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 21c | 460.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.07 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 13c | 351.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 68c | 344.69$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 307.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.81 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 277.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b08…8401backed No | 79c | 252.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 241.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…f993backed Yes | 25c | 240.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…4c39backed Yes | 14c | 169$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +595.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed Yes | 10c | 157.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522a…5955backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed No | 64c | 149.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 71c | 148.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 12c | 137.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 31c | 127.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 80c | 123.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed No | 57c | 89.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 60c | 89.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed No | 50c | 77.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 65c | 74.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…a996backed Yes | 50c | 68.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 68c | 66.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…6df3backed Yes | 72c | 65.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 78c | 63.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…b032backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…3193backed No | 76c | 58.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 41c | 53.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 59c | 52.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9be3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 38.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b1…af58backed Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 29.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a0…96c7backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…9052backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…d636backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…f4dbbacked No | 75c | 22.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 71c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…4528backed No | 63c | 16.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.