TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79a0…96c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.65
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.5%+$26.52
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25.4
Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+38.9%+$9.72
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+131.3%+$181.68
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+56%+$25.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+93.4%+$38.29
Fed rate cut by October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+42.3%+$12.68
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+34%+$20.41
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+28.7%+$5.74
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$7.4
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.63
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Epstein disclosure bill/resolution enacted in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Democratic sweep?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+26.6%+$13.29
Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New US sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justices by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.