TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,329,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,385,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,329,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,006 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes79c865,179$684,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180,606.372321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df9…7b58backed Yes76c484,866$370,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,791.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes67c437,841$294,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,885.861241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b25…846bbacked Yes73c353,088$256,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,909.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes80c271,781$216,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,955.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed No9c235,862$22,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,330.04150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89b…6b44backed No10c212,001$20,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,998.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f1…7110backed Yes50c200,000$100,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,720.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No10c167,283$16,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,431.541921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed No9c163,824$14,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,054.19119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-76.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes70c160,207$111,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,738.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes48c136,978$65,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,259.242548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes57c125,647$71,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,035.034820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd4…85aabacked Yes63c110,166$69,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,818333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes74c103,741$76,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,297.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af6…25afbacked No30c100,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…6f08backed No10c99,990$9,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,99910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes71c89,292$63,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,655.1818135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45b8…e9cfbacked No6c88,978$5,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,481.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa826…f823backed Yes75c87,639$65,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,733.493100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes74c86,500$63,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,535.431330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes72c76,794$55,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,649.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes80c75,739$60,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,147.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes76c73,322$55,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,359.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No12c66,667$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes76c64,582$48,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,702.681681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes64c63,701$40,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,120.848953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc683…4b1fbacked No32c60,128$19,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,371.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes39c59,898$23,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,469.232536%9 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3499…4f27backed No62c57,628$35,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,729.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7d…748bbacked Yes38c57,628$21,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,729.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes75c56,600$42,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,333728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes71c55,000$39,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,699.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes72c53,989$39,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,918.383423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4f…47d7backed Yes63c50,897$31,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,974.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed No11c50,885$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,601.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes79c50,656$39,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,659.188333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No9c50,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7441…5ed5backed Yes74c50,000$36,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,099.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e1…387dbacked Yes79c48,646$38,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,179.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No29c44,672$13,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,077.7150%0 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa584…28e5backed Yes79c44,500$35,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,3451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…d1fdbacked Yes79c43,590$34,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,337.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…1e04backed Yes78c42,861$33,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,429.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d3…d640backed Yes66c42,351$27,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,399.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes78c39,905$30,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,941.652035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes79c39,419$31,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,106.673548.6%17 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8005…8de3backed Yes75c38,818$29,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,569.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-55.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes71c38,003$26,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,060.81580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No36c37,093$13,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,220.391711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-81.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes73c37,072$26,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,161.831050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No17c34,797$5,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,916.683315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c98…763fbacked Yes73c34,591$25,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,467.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Yes66c33,999$22,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,432.91361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes80c30,767$24,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,263.053240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No9c30,262$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.69120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e9…239bbacked No10c29,800$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,98010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e20…ccb8backed Yes41c29,685$12,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,619.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d87…edfcbacked No62c29,125$18,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,057.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1637…9042backed Yes38c29,125$11,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,057.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c1…f206backed Yes38c26,380$9,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,386.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f9…5c11backed Yes77c25,840$19,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,909.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2d…0d8abacked Yes62c25,645$15,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,795.211070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46c6…a48ebacked No8c25,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes72c23,780$17,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,757.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes75c22,576$17,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,557.242450%12 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71b2…307dbacked No17c21,504$3,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,655.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed No28c21,430$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,050.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4019…1453backed Yes41c21,397$8,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,598.37520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73de…e21cbacked Yes79c21,362$16,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,584.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes80c21,000$16,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,253.83812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x028e…c937backed Yes69c20,662$14,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,476.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked No10c20,423$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes57c20,187$11,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,650.523043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes47c19,050$8,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,075.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bec…abb3backed Yes58c19,000$10,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,004.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes62c18,955$11,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,157.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes74c18,833$14,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,805.172626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No5c18,515$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f14…3c7abacked No70c18,308$12,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,809.341560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes63c18,095$11,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,725.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x922d…1223backed No18c18,024$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.52147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed No18c18,008$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.690%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Yes73c17,987$13,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes78c17,523$13,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.781926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Yes69c17,486$12,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,345.363100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No2c16,306$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes75c15,361$11,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes46c15,275$7,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,214.834151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf661…d170backed Yes78c15,004$11,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf5…6ecebacked Yes48c14,923$7,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,699.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3427…7977backed Yes34c14,686$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,686.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes54c14,514$7,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,678.585749.1%28 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8f2…b74abacked No37c14,484$5,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,305.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a8…8f5ebacked No26c13,760$3,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68c…fcb2backed No8c13,740$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5734…6ab7backed Yes76c13,162$10,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a87…168dbacked No13c13,146$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes79c12,933$10,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.35637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes71c12,827$9,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,776.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.