Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,329,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,385,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,329,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,006 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 79c | 865,179$684,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180,606.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df9…7b58backed Yes | 76c | 484,866$370,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,791.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 67c | 437,841$294,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,885.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…846bbacked Yes | 73c | 353,088$256,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,909.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 80c | 271,781$216,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,955.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 9c | 235,862$22,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,330.04 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…6b44backed No | 10c | 212,001$20,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,998.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…7110backed Yes | 50c | 200,000$100,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,720.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 10c | 167,283$16,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,431.54 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed No | 9c | 163,824$14,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,054.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 70c | 160,207$111,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,738.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 48c | 136,978$65,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,259.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 57c | 125,647$71,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,035.03 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…85aabacked Yes | 63c | 110,166$69,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,818 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 74c | 103,741$76,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,297.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…25afbacked No | 30c | 100,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,999.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…6f08backed No | 10c | 99,990$9,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 89,292$63,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,655.18 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…e9cfbacked No | 6c | 88,978$5,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,481.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f823backed Yes | 75c | 87,639$65,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,733.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 74c | 86,500$63,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,535.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Yes | 72c | 76,794$55,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,649.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes | 80c | 75,739$60,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,147.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 76c | 73,322$55,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,359.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…fb6cbacked No | 12c | 66,667$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 76c | 64,582$48,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,702.68 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 64c | 63,701$40,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,120.84 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…4b1fbacked No | 32c | 60,128$19,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,371.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 39c | 59,898$23,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,469.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…4f27backed No | 62c | 57,628$35,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,729.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…748bbacked Yes | 38c | 57,628$21,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,729.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes | 75c | 56,600$42,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,333 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes | 71c | 55,000$39,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,699.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 72c | 53,989$39,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,918.38 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…47d7backed Yes | 63c | 50,897$31,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,974.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed No | 11c | 50,885$5,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,601.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 79c | 50,656$39,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,659.18 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 9c | 50,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…5ed5backed Yes | 74c | 50,000$36,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,099.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…387dbacked Yes | 79c | 48,646$38,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,179.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 29c | 44,672$13,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,077.7 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…28e5backed Yes | 79c | 44,500$35,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,345 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d1fdbacked Yes | 79c | 43,590$34,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,337.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…1e04backed Yes | 78c | 42,861$33,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,429.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…d640backed Yes | 66c | 42,351$27,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,399.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 78c | 39,905$30,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,941.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 79c | 39,419$31,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,106.67 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8de3backed Yes | 75c | 38,818$29,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,569.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed Yes | 71c | 38,003$26,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,060.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 36c | 37,093$13,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,220.39 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes | 73c | 37,072$26,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,161.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 17c | 34,797$5,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,916.68 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…763fbacked Yes | 73c | 34,591$25,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,467.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 66c | 33,999$22,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,432.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 80c | 30,767$24,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,263.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked No | 9c | 30,262$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…239bbacked No | 10c | 29,800$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…ccb8backed Yes | 41c | 29,685$12,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,619.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…edfcbacked No | 62c | 29,125$18,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,057.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1637…9042backed Yes | 38c | 29,125$11,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,057.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…f206backed Yes | 38c | 26,380$9,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,386.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…5c11backed Yes | 77c | 25,840$19,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,909.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…0d8abacked Yes | 62c | 25,645$15,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,795.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked No | 8c | 25,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 72c | 23,780$17,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,757.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 75c | 22,576$17,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,557.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b2…307dbacked No | 17c | 21,504$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed No | 28c | 21,430$6,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,050.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…1453backed Yes | 41c | 21,397$8,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,598.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…e21cbacked Yes | 79c | 21,362$16,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,584.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 80c | 21,000$16,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,253.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x028e…c937backed Yes | 69c | 20,662$14,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,476.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked No | 10c | 20,423$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 57c | 20,187$11,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,650.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 47c | 19,050$8,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,075.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…abb3backed Yes | 58c | 19,000$10,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,004.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 62c | 18,955$11,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,157.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 74c | 18,833$14,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,805.17 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 5c | 18,515$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked No | 70c | 18,308$12,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,809.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 63c | 18,095$11,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,725.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed No | 18c | 18,024$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,193.52 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed No | 18c | 18,008$3,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Yes | 73c | 17,987$13,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 78c | 17,523$13,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,916.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 69c | 17,486$12,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,345.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 2c | 16,306$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 75c | 15,361$11,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,786.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 46c | 15,275$7,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,214.83 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed Yes | 78c | 15,004$11,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…6ecebacked Yes | 48c | 14,923$7,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,699.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…7977backed Yes | 34c | 14,686$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,686.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 54c | 14,514$7,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,678.58 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…b74abacked No | 37c | 14,484$5,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,305.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…8f5ebacked No | 26c | 13,760$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…fcb2backed No | 8c | 13,740$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…6ab7backed Yes | 76c | 13,162$10,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…168dbacked No | 13c | 13,146$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 79c | 12,933$10,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775.3 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 71c | 12,827$9,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,776.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.