TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,002,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,128,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,002,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 785 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c4,801,239$13,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,615.36320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c3,188,730$10,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,422.28280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed Yes0c2,865,311$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25d…452cbacked Yes0c2,000,000$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.0730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes0c1,809,194$8,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,276.78156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-89.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Yes0c1,800,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c1,223,054$6,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,859.12352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…a199backed Yes0c1,093,819$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3c…adb1backed Yes0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa283…17f4backed Yes0c988,642$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c981,000$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,976190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes0c687,353$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…db70backed Yes0c644,678$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c1…6d08backed Yes0c633,333$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x947d…64b8backed Yes0c613,173$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes1c551,902$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe75b…fb46backed Yes0c549,000$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55bd…83d0backed Yes0c510,477$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes0c500,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes0c500,000$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes0c474,951$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.3120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…ab2abacked Yes1c450,670$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes0c433,000$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69db…74cbbacked Yes1c392,909$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes0c385,515$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.52520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c380,976$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.57170%0 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f81…545fbacked Yes0c380,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc683…4b1fbacked Yes0c379,421$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a1…d723backed Yes0c375,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e6…c1bfbacked Yes0c322,692$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x963d…ec60backed Yes0c319,000$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x644a…efcebacked Yes1c318,537$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e5…c4f6backed Yes0c316,000$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f43…d2f3backed Yes0c304,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca4…acd5backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7384…66d5backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc190…cf58backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c296,949$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.91520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes0c286,952$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1603417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes1c265,841$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c244,259$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.88523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes1c240,502$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes1c213,971$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.34100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c210,526$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d6…a74abacked Yes0c202,690$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…3312backed Yes0c200,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd35…ed3bbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed Yes0c191,780$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed Yes1c188,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-74.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed Yes0c179,223$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.0870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x257e…0ec0backed Yes0c173,577$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2e…1a4abacked Yes0c165,777$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb354…e124backed Yes1c161,122$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes1c155,482$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f33…0479backed Yes0c150,131$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.9790%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae3…6537backed Yes0c150,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf179…914dbacked Yes1c148,800$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…bda6backed Yes0c140,300$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf359…3473backed Yes1c138,744$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9895…3870backed Yes0c133,000$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes0c132,047$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a3…2140backed Yes0c125,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c124,983$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde4…8773backed Yes0c124,339$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…db23backed Yes0c116,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501f…6b40backed Yes0c112,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf4…494fbacked Yes0c111,975$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a4…07fabacked Yes0c110,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108f…7937backed Yes0c107,944$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8a…278fbacked Yes0c107,472$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37f3…1736backed Yes0c105,333$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x636f…2b89backed Yes0c104,833$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes0c104,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214314%6 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes0c103,333$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf356…211abacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaec…1b08backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674a…d582backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5697…c7bebacked Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe954…c84abacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca17…bbabbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa161…0ce8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bdb…14d8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeada…58d1backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-78.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed8…60ecbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb670…f16ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b5…2a7dbacked Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x877c…007cbacked Yes1c99,382$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f4…6bc0backed Yes0c98,009$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3e…2d0cbacked Yes0c97,340$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f3…713ebacked Yes0c93,855$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes1c91,277$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.43120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a8…8f5ebacked Yes1c83,343$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…5f32backed Yes0c83,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd57…694dbacked Yes0c82,670$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433a…71e7backed Yes1c80,356$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes1c80,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400150%0 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9f…43efbacked Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes0c76,410$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.