TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf9a4…07fa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+45.7%+$58.9
NBA Finals: Will any game go to overtime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.02
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$28.24
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$41.63
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$19.32
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+63.2%+$53.69
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.71
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.23
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$66
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.42
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$129.13
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$24.46
Warriors vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+75.4%+$16.06
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+233.3%+$67.67
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+150%+$21
Mavericks vs. Thunderbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+53.8%+$40.38
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
MLB — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletics vs. Piratesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$300.9
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.8
Reds vs. Nationalsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
Athletics vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Cubs vs. Twinsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$10.15
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.8
Guardians vs. Athleticsbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Yankees vs. Royalsbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$12.27
Giants vs. Rockiesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Diamondbacks vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$62.45
Royals vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.6
Orioles vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Orioles vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Padres vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+100%+$12.5
Rockies vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.6
Blue Jays vs. Raysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinalsbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Mets vs. Red Soxbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+150%+$15
Royals vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+71.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USC vs. Notre Damebacked USC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.3
Texas Tech vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Notre Dame vs. Miamibacked Notre Dame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.23
Ohio State vs. Notre Damebacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+51.5%+$18.03
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Eagles vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.4
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.51
Chargers vs. Cardinalsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$11
All 4 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$14
Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico backed Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+104.9%+$41.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.