Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a0e99dec7bb0c6ae5a9166cf6df932a36ca721eb62f673eda5ea87232bc8f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,176,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,495,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,176,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,876 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 43c | 429,850$183,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183,370.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 51c | 403,918$206,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206,260.34 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 49c | 287,406$139,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139,484.55 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 37c | 258,330$95,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,553.06 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…4710backed Yes | 33c | 237,522$79,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,118.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 67c | 208,895$140,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,306.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 50c | 193,132$97,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,126.79 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 46c | 182,388$83,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,105.67 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 34c | 150,233$51,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,400.64 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked No | 40c | 127,727$51,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,291.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 20c | 117,739$23,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,129.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 48c | 117,420$56,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,103.09 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 48c | 102,298$49,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,151.76 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed No | 68c | 100,569$68,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,704.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 33c | 98,110$32,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,843.38 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 50c | 96,113$47,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,495.31 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 39c | 93,613$36,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,168.83 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 38c | 90,185$34,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,231.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 75c | 85,142$63,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,669.18 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 0c | 82,764$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.53 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 41c | 79,029$32,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,397.18 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 69,530$4,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,119.04 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 50c | 66,644$33,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,496.27 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 36c | 65,605$23,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,670.65 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 72c | 63,828$45,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,850.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 27c | 61,609$16,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,901.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 62c | 58,314$35,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,375.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…51ecbacked Yes | 61c | 55,384$33,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,957.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 59c | 54,934$32,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,472.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 15c | 54,066$8,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,220.49 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 62c | 52,715$32,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,065.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 43c | 52,405$22,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,581.43 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 42c | 51,358$21,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,329.69 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 60c | 48,984$29,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,781.03 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…b7e5backed No | 63c | 48,666$30,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,966.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 58c | 46,645$27,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,433.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 0c | 46,348$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 33c | 45,451$15,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,102.63 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 3c | 40,822$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.29 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 40,458$2,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,942.27 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked No | 64c | 39,102$24,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,229.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 62c | 38,232$23,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,673.9 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 48c | 37,124$17,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,322.8 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…a3e0backed Yes | 74c | 36,381$26,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,942.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…7805backed Yes | 66c | 36,207$23,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,900.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 43c | 36,086$15,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,461.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…91cebacked No | 60c | 35,241$21,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,113.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 41c | 34,677$14,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,282.85 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 52c | 34,274$17,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,468.37 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 61c | 33,073$20,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,892.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 48c | 32,502$15,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,546.01 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 36c | 32,479$11,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,775.98 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked No | 65c | 31,231$20,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,794.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…25a5backed No | 57c | 30,391$17,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,961.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 52c | 30,182$15,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,527.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 60c | 29,834$17,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,995.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…7bfabacked No | 62c | 29,820$18,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,443.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 36c | 29,040$10,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,351.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 73c | 28,243$20,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,751.4 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…fcfdbacked Yes | 32c | 28,153$8,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,994.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 41c | 27,391$11,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,105.17 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes | 42c | 27,023$11,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,332.16 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes | 18c | 26,121$4,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,614.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…5ac7backed No | 74c | 26,043$19,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,849.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 4c | 25,553$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.4 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 43c | 25,334$10,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,962.75 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d70…2698backed No | 61c | 24,967$15,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,729.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 77c | 24,660$18,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,727.13 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 24,650$9,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,273.45 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 46c | 23,549$10,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,948.72 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 36c | 23,035$8,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,184.31 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 22,495$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.91 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 61c | 22,351$13,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,691.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 57c | 22,179$12,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,494.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 45c | 22,005$9,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,816.79 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 49c | 21,252$10,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,441.9 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 46c | 21,000$9,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,559.96 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 78c | 20,990$16,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,685.02 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 43c | 20,739$8,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,967.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 61c | 20,011$12,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,884.86 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Yes | 50c | 19,877$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 42c | 19,797$8,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,275.43 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 43c | 19,377$8,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,357.73 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 32c | 18,957$6,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,020.14 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 68c | 18,350$12,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,540 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 46c | 18,180$8,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,395.41 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 24c | 18,169$4,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.17 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 26c | 16,919$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,369.88 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 67c | 16,836$11,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,217.3 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 16,643$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.02 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 62c | 16,243$10,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.43 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 73c | 16,112$11,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,416.32 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 70c | 16,084$11,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,863.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 37c | 15,785$5,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,914.55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 66c | 15,566$10,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,339.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 50c | 15,380$7,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,729.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 45c | 14,923$6,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,728 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x037a…c53ebacked No | 56c | 14,917$8,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,581.95 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 40c | 14,830$5,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,901.84 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 31c | 14,822$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,161.83 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.