TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,176,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,495,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,176,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,876 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes43c429,850$183,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,370.923036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes51c403,918$206,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206,260.3437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes49c287,406$139,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,484.558137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No37c258,330$95,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,553.064257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ef…4710backed Yes33c237,522$79,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,118.81742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No67c208,895$140,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,306.991656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No50c193,132$97,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,126.795141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes46c182,388$83,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,105.678617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes34c150,233$51,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,400.643823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4817…6bdbbacked No40c127,727$51,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,291.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes20c117,739$23,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,129.221225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes48c117,420$56,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,103.0916743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No48c102,298$49,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,151.7640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No68c100,569$68,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,704.261553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No33c98,110$32,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,843.384835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No50c96,113$47,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,495.317247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes39c93,613$36,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,168.8342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes38c90,185$34,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,231.23342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No75c85,142$63,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,669.185042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes0c82,764$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5336227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes41c79,029$32,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,397.1812654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes6c69,530$4,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,119.0417931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No50c66,644$33,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,496.2735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes36c65,605$23,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,670.656134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No72c63,828$45,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,850.222055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes27c61,609$16,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,901.061752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked No62c58,314$35,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,375.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf37…51ecbacked Yes61c55,384$33,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,957.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No59c54,934$32,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,472.372157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes15c54,066$8,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,220.4919531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No62c52,715$32,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,065.471050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes43c52,405$22,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,581.432227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes42c51,358$21,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,329.694119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No60c48,984$29,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,781.032360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed No63c48,666$30,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,966.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No58c46,645$27,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,433.612259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes0c46,348$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.085532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes33c45,451$15,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,102.6326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes3c40,822$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.294022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes7c40,458$2,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.2717018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1099…903cbacked No64c39,102$24,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,229.891442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No62c38,232$23,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,673.97462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No48c37,124$17,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,322.836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88e6…a3e0backed Yes74c36,381$26,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,942.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-73.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d30…7805backed Yes66c36,207$23,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,900.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes43c36,086$15,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,461.061145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb956…91cebacked No60c35,241$21,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,113.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes41c34,677$14,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,282.8512245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No52c34,274$17,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,468.3721259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed No61c33,073$20,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,892.161060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes48c32,502$15,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,546.016440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No36c32,479$11,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,775.984650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x608c…a8ddbacked No65c31,231$20,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,794.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d81…25a5backed No57c30,391$17,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,961.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked No52c30,182$15,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,527.811338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No60c29,834$17,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,995.151844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf2…7bfabacked No62c29,820$18,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,443.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes36c29,040$10,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,351.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No73c28,243$20,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,751.46254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ed1…fcfdbacked Yes32c28,153$8,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,994.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes41c27,391$11,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,105.1731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes42c27,023$11,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,332.162634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Yes18c26,121$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,614.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f9…5ac7backed No74c26,043$19,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,849.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes4c25,553$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.44425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes43c25,334$10,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,962.758037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d70…2698backed No61c24,967$15,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,729.772250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No77c24,660$18,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,727.137538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes38c24,650$9,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,273.4551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes46c23,549$10,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,948.7231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes36c23,035$8,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,184.313815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c22,495$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.9142120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No61c22,351$13,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,691.923438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked No57c22,179$12,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,494.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes45c22,005$9,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,816.792532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes49c21,252$10,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,441.934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Yes46c21,000$9,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,559.963647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No78c20,990$16,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,685.028056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes43c20,739$8,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,967.982035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No61c20,011$12,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,884.869154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Yes50c19,877$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes42c19,797$8,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,275.4311141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes43c19,377$8,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,357.737940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes32c18,957$6,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,020.14387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes68c18,350$12,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5401643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes46c18,180$8,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,395.414835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes24c18,169$4,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.177142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes26c16,919$4,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,369.884418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes67c16,836$11,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,217.34050%20 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c16,643$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,687.0242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No62c16,243$10,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,114.433762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No73c16,112$11,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,416.328359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked No70c16,084$11,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,863.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No37c15,785$5,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,914.552161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes66c15,566$10,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,339.52748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes50c15,380$7,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,729.58530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes45c14,923$6,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7282373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x037a…c53ebacked No56c14,917$8,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,581.95887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes40c14,830$5,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,901.845549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No31c14,822$4,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,161.8327233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.