TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9cb9…7b80

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
256
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT9348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+115.5%+$190.73
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.22
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+141.5%+$439.49
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.25
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.45
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$100
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,985Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$1,174.57
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$91.43
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,541Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$494.49
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+139.8%+$87.38
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+988.4%+$135.86
Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.29
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$554.91
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+202.6%+$1,117.1
Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.4
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,782Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$1,251.93
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.62
Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.28
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.77
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+575.9%+$857.3
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$383.45
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$119.21
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$240
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$833Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$792.24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+366.1%+$15,120.04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,276.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.62
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.79
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.71
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+81.3%+$422.45
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$200
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$728Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$727.89
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.12
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+186.2%+$853.62
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+110.1%+$379.07
Will Iran strike Qatar in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20.58
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,409Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+229.7%+$3,236.14
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$217.74
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+87.5%+$673.91
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$90.49
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$289
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$421.62
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$69.3
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.9%+$33.59
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$91
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.5
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,005Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,004.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$769.98
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,967Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,966.92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.6%+$83.72
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.9%+$141.72
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last less than 2 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$24.21
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$116
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$24.61
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+26.4%+$73
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$517Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$517.23
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+51.2%+$86.29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.39
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$56.7
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$44.39
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,555Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+33%+$843.22
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.4%+$215.47
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.71
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,919Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+26.1%+$761.13
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+65.3%+$23.7
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$916Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+38.1%+$348.97
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$83.2
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.4
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19,610Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+41.8%+$8,201.55
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$57.5
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$198.53
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$13
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.71
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$114
Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.68
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$757Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+32%+$242.56
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.9
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.12
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+61.2%+$174.44
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$20.29
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$10.05
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$202
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$33.5
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+31.6%+$4.8
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$130.05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,700.4
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.61
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$221.81
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,339Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+45.4%+$1,060.91
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$30.5
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,718Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,717.9
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,467Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.8%+$1,228.45
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$589.29
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,511Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$1,347.93
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$80
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$122.5
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$260.5
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42.96
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+40.8%+$29
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+58.7%+$74
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$387.5
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$202.67
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$211.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+146.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+42%+$110.16
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+82.1%+$69.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris heat wave by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$65.75
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+44.2%+$23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,141Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+35.5%+$405.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Winter Games 2026: Lindsey Vonn to medal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+29.8%+$80.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.