TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,329 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes5c2,278$115 inLost-$115.483221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes3c712.3$22 inLost-$21.652810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid+38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes5c479.95$25 inLost-$24.54429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c19…94f5backed Yes5c434.49$22 inLost-$22.0960%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes4c417.17$18 inLost-$17.8726641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes3c324.39$10 inLost-$10.317931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes6c254.99$16 inLost-$16.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d9…23e5backed Yes21c240.26$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c07…7914backed Yes6c161.85$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d5…83a6backed Yes41c93.47$38 inLost-$38.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c60$47 inWon+$13.298351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.