Movies · resolved market
Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x017c11efc5e718698db5e8137ce125495a7d60f81a532f62df4c7b2c2cf33af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 22c | 733.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 3c | 719.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 665.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 16c | 346$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 277.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 16c | 250.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 17c | 220.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes | 34c | 172.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 13c | 171.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…7002backed Yes | 18c | 163.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…83e7backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bf…debabacked Yes | 33c | 134.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…7b78backed Yes | 12c | 131.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 131$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes | 12c | 107.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…ae34backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 83.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2f…5d00backed Yes | 16c | 75.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 70.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 39.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…0f14backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Yes | 34c | 36.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…316cbacked No | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e19fbacked No | 78c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?this page
- Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?Yes won
- Will "GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "PAPER TIGER by James GRAY" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
- Will "THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.