Movies · resolved market

Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a5721cb581749201696b269a2f4af5d6c0fdf44d1e2d236606df912c39d17f2

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,562 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x28ca…5d19backed No	59c	3,108$1,836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,272.15	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…d02dbacked Yes	54c	2,638$1,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Yes	33c	2,153$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.83	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked No	60c	999.79$598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.63	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes	22c	856.34$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.01	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No	63c	818.08$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.68	60	28.3%17 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	50c	803$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.03	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	75c	661.01$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.74	79	31.6%25 W · 54 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	77c	627.78$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.71	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	23c	552.31$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.83	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…4309backed Yes	56c	499.98$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb86a…8e44backed Yes	49c	497.78$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	26c	474.15$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.45	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf937…53a1backed No	74c	432.5$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.02	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd222…fbf6backed Yes	46c	424.42$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb20…d921backed Yes	14c	326.57$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	75c	323.82$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.12	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6163…07a3backed Yes	34c	313.72$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.52	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	37c	300.46$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.33	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6c…4c95backed Yes	25c	278.19$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes	38c	274.7$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.22	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…7b78backed Yes	18c	274.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+210.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0286…e1fcbacked Yes	21c	241.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e8…d027backed Yes	43c	231.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes	22c	227.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc691…389cbacked No	54c	223$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.78	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9268…e4cbbacked Yes	17c	208.59$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes	28c	175.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…4e67backed Yes	36c	169.2$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f7…f325backed Yes	40c	160.29$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	42c	152.69$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.53	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	70c	150.92$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.44	103	39.8%41 W · 62 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	51c	126.48$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.97	119	24.4%29 W · 90 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4fa…d79dbacked Yes	38c	122.83$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c44…263cbacked Yes	25c	122.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1bb…ea05backed Yes	42c	118.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8f…ad42backed Yes	25c	118$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked Yes	28c	116.66$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.85	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5d5…83a6backed Yes	62c	112.73$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes	18c	108$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes	10c	106.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	13cpaid	+138.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	23c	102.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d5d…1999backed Yes	23c	102.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes	16c	100.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	120	30%36 W · 84 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99ef…b9a0backed Yes	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No	63c	95$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.45	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7c4…9d05backed Yes	33c	92.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	14c	92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	35c	82.83$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.72	100	42%42 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa310…31d1backed Yes	47c	82.72$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	23c	82.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf220…ed17backed Yes	17c	81.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	45c	78$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	112	40.2%45 W · 67 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c07…7914backed Yes	27c	73.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.1	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba70…bb13backed Yes	35c	66.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	68c	65$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.55	106	45.3%48 W · 58 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	42c	63.6$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.86	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	77c	63$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.77	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No	63c	60.48$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.28	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No	74c	59.67$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.77	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	69cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes	41c	54.02$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb172…606dbacked Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No	79c	52.88$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.21	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a87…3e26backed No	64c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.86	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes	41c	49.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+4.6wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2a7…bcaebacked Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked No	34c	43.53$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.53	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6155…1328backed Yes	57c	42.96$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No	66c	41.8$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.3	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d9…a48dbacked Yes	50c	39.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No	75c	39.28$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.79	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Yes	39c	39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6918…7816backed Yes	44c	31.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	44c	28.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	170	10%17 W · 153 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No	72c	27.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ef…0da8backed No	68c	25.05$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.05	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8862…bbf5backed No	72c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	72cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb3…9794backed No	77c	23.98$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.52	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2f…5d00backed Yes	61c	22.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event