Movies · resolved market

Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0870fd2456996da2ec54fe09cc75f616a4a5dbf6241da7d5953aa0087e9b46b7

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes	12c	4,122$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf869…e2b4backed Yes	15c	934.09$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362a…8f48backed Yes	20c	527.34$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes	4c	513.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked No	72c	422.84$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.89	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Yes	13c	362.04$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.04	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	15c	350.56$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.66	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	12c	323.17$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.69	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	7c	276.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	119	24.4%29 W · 90 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5d…1999backed Yes	38c	263.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ef…b9a0backed Yes	4c	257.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes	6c	256.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13bf…debabacked Yes	31c	188.51$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes	25c	162.77$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.58	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	76c	150.92$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.55	103	39.8%41 W · 62 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	13c	128$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb86a…8e44backed Yes	18c	123.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168d…d29fbacked Yes	35c	116.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2f…5d00backed Yes	31c	96.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb417…7c09backed Yes	30c	92.23$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-53%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	15c	87.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	143	37.1%53 W · 90 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf220…ed17backed Yes	14c	86.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No	77c	67.51$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.53	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	22c	63.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	160	15.6%25 W · 135 L	-26.1wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	74c	55$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	124	42.7%53 W · 71 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes	33c	45.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No	72c	39.86$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.96	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	32c	35.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No	66c	30.53$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.53	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	77c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.87	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event