TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,728 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3d3…66ffbacked Yes69c4,223$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…825abacked Yes67c4,000$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+102.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes51c3,007$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.357451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes3c2,400$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes42c2,053$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes36c1,366$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.856737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No47c1,355$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9236742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ad…6b75backed No52c1,016$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.491741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1597…d74fbacked Yes58c1,008$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c1,008$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.387526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3de3…765fbacked No58c1,007$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5c…6276backed Yes64c938.92$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070%0 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No48c925$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.065052%26 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed No64c700$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2523100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+207.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c600$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No47c572.4$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.0132255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No40c552.04$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.8546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No63c550$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.54175.6%31 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes41c547.05$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.019123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c454.37$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No53c325.6$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1528142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d7…db87backed Yes72c318.78$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.29977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024250%21 W · 21 L+11.9wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+178.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No34c298.72$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0915446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3493…50fbbacked Yes52c273.08$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbaf…60b9backed Yes64c265.55$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No41c265.02$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.147443.2%32 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed No49c255$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x115d…04fabacked Yes27c240$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.031127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x754d…6741backed Yes53c230.75$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…ab96backed Yes62c222.9$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.971241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…bd20backed Yes51c210$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes35c202.34$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.534358.1%25 W · 18 L+14.6wins+0.34per pick24cpaid+200.9%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x70ae…e370backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13828434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+67.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3d…f691backed Yes48c199.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf49d…88edbacked Yes48c199.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9970%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No55c199.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.717570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No45c197.62$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5726052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c195.28$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.441,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf288…9719backed No46c194.47$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+144.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes42c192.43$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8339414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xcda4…3b8dbacked Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b53…dd21backed No38c158$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes55c157.97$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3b…e8fdbacked No38c156$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6281…f6eebacked Yes62c155.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes65c154.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e06…2971backed Yes49c153.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724544.4%20 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d28…985dbacked Yes40c148.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.871127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes49c147.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaed1…4d3bbacked No35c145.96$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No35c142$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.36533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f9…7e6cbacked Yes35c141.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No48c141.93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4410652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes50c136.25$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.241,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9010…d06fbacked No38c134.41$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7450…b5acbacked No51c127.95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…9d5cbacked Yes37c127.84$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes44c120.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0944921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes41c119.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.083033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No48c114.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.769850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf9fe…d54ebacked Yes57c104.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes43c104.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No39c102.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.768252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No45c102$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.12166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+26.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe0c1…ab48backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc043…325dbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684250%21 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b05…8db1backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.53145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes52c99.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No63c96.81$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.827416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No44c96.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7111435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x039a…b09dbacked Yes53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes44c93.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes43c93.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.251010%1 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes48c85.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.97837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes60c81.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.817044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes44c80.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9137117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes36c75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2712556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d0f…82e0backed Yes57c72.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe10b…bdc7backed Yes62c70$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1599017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No26c67.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9910038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206a…94ddbacked No48c65.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.927438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xab41…4916backed Yes47c64.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.281020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes36c64.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa658…c41dbacked Yes47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2b…cc8fbacked Yes64c63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e1…4fa1backed Yes48c62.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes59c62.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.779348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7833…f126backed Yes49c61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.89911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-81.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x731b…0b5dbacked Yes65c61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No39c59.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.542759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.