TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe947…ab96

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Premier League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 53 out of 100; worst Tennis at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.99
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+687.4%+$87.3
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$111
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.99
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$225
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.87
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$117
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.98
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+77.7%+$57.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+400%+$223.83
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.48
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.79
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$487.39
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.67
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$153
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.4
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.97
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+506.1%+$1,669.98
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.5
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$746Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+34%+$254
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$194.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+168.6%+$816
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$24.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.