TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,811 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0c75…3c94backed Yes7c53,428$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,995.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c8,024$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.716883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes63c6,077$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.91266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb819…6625backed Yes3c3,406$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Yes31c2,805$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c2,768$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9234726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39ac…5e32backed Yes6c2,661$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cc…62b7backed Yes28c2,639$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5a…675bbacked Yes65c2,626$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x753d…4478backed Yes2c2,381$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+24.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No62c2,191$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.0632255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes7c1,654$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.494766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6c…4f05backed Yes3c1,615$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa05…fed7backed Yes67c1,574$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,551$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.482344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes14c1,469$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.325721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c1,457$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.741357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes37c1,335$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.471741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd637…1017backed No38c1,333$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.91837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c1,317$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.381676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c1,248$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1622029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…8592backed Yes9c1,153$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes35c1,126$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.447331.5%23 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c1,100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.86614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…6fb9backed Yes7c999.28$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ef…8724backed Yes3c934.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes7c930.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.853046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd199…37a6backed Yes23c850.82$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No68c839.41$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.255817.2%10 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes8c826.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.45446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a41…c0cebacked Yes13c818.41$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd463…8513backed Yes2c714.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05b…0912backed Yes9c711.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c691.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0115014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7355…9443backed Yes66c686.48$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56be…c681backed Yes1c682.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ec…c0e0backed Yes3c648.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No77c600.31$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1810652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd533…7f92backed Yes17c584.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d2…2356backed Yes4c541.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8922…3284backed Yes9c529.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…09e2backed Yes67c514.36$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.59425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-57.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c510.9$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3118246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc651…dbf7backed Yes13c500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c483$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.534812.5%6 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbde…4c96backed Yes50c468.65$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4471…3f7bbacked Yes12c467.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ea…2033backed Yes2c463.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9110…4a41backed Yes22c460.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+77.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9930…c482backed Yes14c445.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c433.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.415446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes65c424.18$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.114645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78c…15d8backed Yes25c416.19$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0965…bd95backed Yes6c405.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes14c394.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.239850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd268…5609backed Yes68c353.83$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes16c323.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.422920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes10c311.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes7c303.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.03120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb244…7ed9backed Yes7c293.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2288…786bbacked Yes25c278.91$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5f…bd84backed Yes8c269.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c264.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1324110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes5c264$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.022711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed Yes62c243.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504040%16 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes20c242.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5944921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes8c214.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee1…5a04backed Yes23c203.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…b0f0backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3d…fddcbacked Yes26c193.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+112%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No36c188.28$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.325121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa756…d2babacked Yes57c180.1$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.91637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes6c179.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.443644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a6…8297backed Yes65c178.15$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.892128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8952…1f26backed No56c177.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes20c171.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.446448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes65c168.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes26c167.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.345837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b4…31d3backed No35c166.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c155.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes8c154.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ba…e04abacked Yes19c153.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.581421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44eb…1bd3backed Yes66c152.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f49…3008backed Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f9f…b0f0backed Yes35c148.71$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No36c143.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.426052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…c5cabacked No42c142.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d2…0d2bbacked Yes15c139.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Yes37c136.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecc…dd76backed Yes33c130$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a32fbacked Yes16c124.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No45c120.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5114250%71 W · 71 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes24c110.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.036836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd853…204ebacked Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b35…b245backed Yes30c101.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x193d…feebbacked Yes29c100.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b0…c2edbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.