TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeee1…5a04

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Serie A at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+95.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$988Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$988.49
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+706.8%+$268.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+962.1%+$1,005.09
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+443%+$443.03
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$22.9
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+309.8%+$291.03
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+190.8%+$369.86
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+308.1%+$492.96
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.77
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$297
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+54%+$107.93
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$213
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$259.41
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+71.3%+$124.72
All 10 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-52.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+75.4%+$12.82
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$7.06
Magic vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$13.85
All 4 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$205
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+40.8%+$20.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$314.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.