Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70909f0ba8256a89c301da58812ae47203df54957a07c7f8b10235e877ad63c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,238,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,128,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,238,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 9,520 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 3,131,489$4,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,887.51 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 2,296,065$3,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,296.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 51c | 1,200,464$609,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590,711.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad4…acd7backed Yes | 29c | 1,084,908$318,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766,685.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 76c | 1,039,875$795,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795,003.67 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked No | 0c | 927,964$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 892,889$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.89 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 6c | 698,286$40,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,998.89 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8716…c958backed No | 2c | 652,497$10,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,508.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 33c | 641,219$210,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430,897.97 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…973fbacked No | 63c | 635,097$400,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400,300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 77c | 604,710$465,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465,199.12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 17c | 591,214$102,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488,706.42 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 77c | 577,036$444,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444,782.14 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…cef4backed No | 0c | 564,829$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 78c | 551,892$428,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428,166.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…a7f1backed No | 2c | 527,245$11,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ec…5a04backed No | 0c | 382,925$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…2b32backed No | 3c | 329,419$10,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,504.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd8…8e08backed No | 1c | 321,152$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 61c | 298,641$183,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183,482.72 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2ab0backed No | 28c | 297,827$84,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,598.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 56c | 287,699$160,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,840.01 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked No | 5c | 268,014$13,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,060.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…e0e3backed No | 0c | 260,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a4…b9dfbacked No | 0c | 250,500$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1998…16efbacked No | 7c | 246,192$17,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,488 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 8c | 240,589$19,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,082.26 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 20c | 237,142$47,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189,473.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 58c | 221,541$127,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127,762.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…2851backed No | 0c | 215,070$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 41c | 211,751$86,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,182.62 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 36c | 211,126$75,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,743.28 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 7c | 207,944$15,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,014.37 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 30c | 206,693$61,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144,791.26 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed No | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…75b7backed No | 3c | 200,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 29c | 185,609$54,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130,986.12 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 69c | 184,575$127,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,391.88 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 77c | 179,472$138,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138,042.52 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 65c | 176,621$114,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,947.88 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772d…45bbbacked No | 3c | 172,991$5,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,727.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 32c | 162,404$52,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,103.7 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 34c | 162,352$55,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,927.48 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 28c | 161,666$45,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,879.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 12c | 154,977$19,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,262.22 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…88eabacked No | 0c | 152,065$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…38d3backed Yes | 16c | 150,352$24,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,296.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 38c | 149,753$57,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,207.55 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…d108backed No | 1c | 147,578$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 32c | 145,091$46,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,231.57 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 75c | 145,000$108,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,673.86 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 14c | 143,393$20,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123,317.98 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…833bbacked No | 5c | 143,313$6,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,875.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 74c | 139,265$102,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,340.73 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…8967backed No | 4c | 136,558$5,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,153.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed No | 2c | 135,805$3,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,323 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…c98bbacked Yes | 74c | 133,632$99,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,595.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 49c | 133,529$65,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,478.93 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 24c | 133,254$31,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101,408.79 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 25c | 132,963$32,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,967.29 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…648dbacked No | 3c | 131,714$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,142.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 0c | 131,606$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.67 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed No | 0c | 130,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00bf…3a0ebacked No | 4c | 129,937$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…6883backed No | 0c | 125,035$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked No | 0c | 123,422$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed Yes | 63c | 118,909$74,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,323.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…3f02backed Yes | 25c | 118,414$29,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,821.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 51c | 118,003$59,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,033.96 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…62e6backed No | 8c | 117,434$9,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,884.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed No | 33c | 117,257$38,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,461.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…5000backed Yes | 42c | 116,236$48,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,882.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…1b64backed No | 3c | 115,286$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 35c | 114,615$40,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,313.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 53c | 112,433$59,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,333.14 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf234…fd66backed No | 1c | 110,889$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…50aebacked No | 1c | 110,680$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 43c | 110,200$46,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,911.83 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…b787backed No | 0c | 108,770$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 103,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…44d9backed No | 2c | 102,424$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 11c | 102,299$11,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,628.74 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 78c | 101,958$79,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,164.12 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…98b1backed No | 0c | 101,563$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 78c | 100,648$78,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,896.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…a3c3backed No | 4c | 100,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…1c0dbacked No | 0c | 99,500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb09b…a08bbacked No | 0c | 97,770$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 78c | 96,734$75,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,452.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…a986backed No | 5c | 94,699$4,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 29c | 91,061$26,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,508.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 41c | 90,119$36,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,826.03 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b83abacked No | 0c | 90,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…6f23backed No | 3c | 89,443$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 35c | 87,472$30,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,699.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 43c | 86,009$36,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,416.1 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 3c | 85,300$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.49 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 36c | 84,691$30,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,432.11 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…d295backed No | 0c | 84,580$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.