TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,604,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,781,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,604,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 427 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes1c204,635$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.922213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c157,159$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.51440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes3c122,013$3,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.21540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes4c120,733$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,220.373315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c99,963$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.98626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes0c88,780$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.897943%34 W · 45 L+11.7wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+49.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c86,366$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.4543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes2c67,366$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.666722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c63,799$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.3710313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes7c59,181$3,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.92650%13 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+195.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes3c57,904$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.8640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c56,464$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.4736227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked Yes4c51,127$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.252955.2%16 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+113.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes5c46,941$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1604513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c46,756$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.513103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c42,590$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.97611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes4c38,432$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.2111615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes2c33,625$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.05402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x863d…ded2backed Yes3c33,611$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.42per pick21cpaid+411.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes3c32,362$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.2325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes5c29,600$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8517…2ce5backed Yes3c29,524$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.73850%4 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+925.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed Yes0c29,372$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.374531.1%14 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes0c29,029$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes6c29,015$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.461752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a8e…1cc7backed Yes7c28,840$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe312…e0b2backed Yes1c28,466$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.53933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+143%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes1c27,690$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.565246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes3c27,144$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.729736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c26,318$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.577135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes3c24,652$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.271910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes5c23,709$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.5120336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c23,498$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c22,323$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6322227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes2c20,928$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.637150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc0d1…8c37backed Yes1c20,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes3c19,553$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.2213617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c19,535$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.72287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ff…d7afbacked Yes0c19,418$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes0c19,200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd91…2659backed Yes6c18,996$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes4c18,664$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.376045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes4c18,068$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.353917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes2c18,066$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.772114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c17,534$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.171,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…0007backed Yes7c17,403$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes2c17,325$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.79280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes4c16,285$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.257413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes3c16,185$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.078433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51d5…34c1backed Yes1c15,935$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+144.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes0c15,214$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes2c15,000$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.47867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c14,665$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5817111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed Yes5c13,900$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.78185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes6c13,786$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.853327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe467…437fbacked Yes4c13,710$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes2c13,497$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.871151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked Yes1c12,758$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.792536%9 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…a1edbacked Yes4c12,489$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes4c12,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a0a…ca20backed Yes1c11,847$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c11,769$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.72913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes1c11,300$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.687116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bd…0a68backed Yes9c11,297$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c0…8ee9backed Yes4c11,167$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.2837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+156.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c1…0193backed Yes7c10,558$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014953.1%26 W · 23 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick27cpaid+106%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb8bf…48c5backed Yes2c10,438$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.68812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes2c10,379$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.646028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes4c10,357$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.296013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes4c10,226$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.1822927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes5c10,001$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.031128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes2c10,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21022547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed Yes0c10,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes5c10,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46035347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes5c10,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4903240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes2c9,945$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.439410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c9,656$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.08684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…9716backed Yes9c9,329$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+163.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes3c9,034$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.425431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c8,980$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.894625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37f…6b69backed Yes1c8,804$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fda…9341backed Yes1c8,650$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c8,580$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.5889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41c6…76b2backed Yes1c8,407$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c8,217$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0815523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb39c…500fbacked Yes1c8,028$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes4c8,013$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes4c8,001$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2410913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba7…434cbacked Yes2c8,000$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes1c7,916$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.522213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…34c3backed Yes3c7,796$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.561650%8 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+134.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c7,641$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.91995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes1c7,604$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4114227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x154d…99f9backed Yes2c7,574$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.791533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+74.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…8260backed Yes3c7,487$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.51per pick6cpaid+1,408.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd5b…7ae7backed Yes6c7,104$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+255.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0793…7cfabacked Yes2c7,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3676…648fbacked Yes3c6,907$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.29728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+171.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c6,814$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4321831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes6c6,616$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.