Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627432726041308b873adac030c674542d1ce920bab336eb3ce83334c8324b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,604,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,781,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,604,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 427 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 204,635$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.92 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 157,159$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.51 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 3c | 122,013$3,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,783.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 4c | 120,733$5,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,220.37 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 99,963$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.98 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 0c | 88,780$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.89 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 86,366$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.45 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 2c | 67,366$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.66 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 63,799$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.37 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 7c | 59,181$3,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,875.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 57,904$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.86 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 56,464$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.47 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 4c | 51,127$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 5c | 46,941$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 46,756$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 42,590$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.9 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 38,432$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.21 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 2c | 33,625$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.05 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…ded2backed Yes | 3c | 33,611$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.42per pick | 21cpaid | +411.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 3c | 32,362$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.23 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 5c | 29,600$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8517…2ce5backed Yes | 3c | 29,524$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +925.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 0c | 29,372$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,029$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 6c | 29,015$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…1cc7backed Yes | 7c | 28,840$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…e0b2backed Yes | 1c | 28,466$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +143%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 1c | 27,690$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 3c | 27,144$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.72 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 26,318$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.57 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Yes | 3c | 24,652$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 5c | 23,709$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.51 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 23,498$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,323$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 2c | 20,928$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.63 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…8c37backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 3c | 19,553$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.22 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 1c | 19,535$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.72 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ff…d7afbacked Yes | 0c | 19,418$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 0c | 19,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…2659backed Yes | 6c | 18,996$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 4c | 18,664$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.37 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 4c | 18,068$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.35 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…7bcabacked Yes | 2c | 18,066$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.77 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 17,534$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 7c | 17,403$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,325$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.79 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 4c | 16,285$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.25 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 3c | 16,185$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.07 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…34c1backed Yes | 1c | 15,935$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,214$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.47 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 14,665$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543e…8253backed Yes | 5c | 13,900$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 6c | 13,786$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.85 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 4c | 13,710$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 2c | 13,497$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.87 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 1c | 12,758$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked Yes | 4c | 12,489$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes | 4c | 12,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…ca20backed Yes | 1c | 11,847$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 1c | 11,769$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…0a68backed Yes | 9c | 11,297$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…8ee9backed Yes | 4c | 11,167$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 7c | 10,558$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…48c5backed Yes | 2c | 10,438$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 10,379$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 4c | 10,357$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.29 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 4c | 10,226$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.18 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 5c | 10,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.03 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 9,945$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,656$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…9716backed Yes | 9c | 9,329$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 9,034$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.42 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 8,980$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed Yes | 1c | 8,804$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…9341backed Yes | 1c | 8,650$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 8,580$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.58 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed Yes | 1c | 8,407$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 8,217$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…500fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,028$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes | 4c | 8,013$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 8,001$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…434cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 1c | 7,916$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…34c3backed Yes | 3c | 7,796$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 7,641$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.9 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,604$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…99f9backed Yes | 2c | 7,574$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…8260backed Yes | 3c | 7,487$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 6cpaid | +1,408.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…7ae7backed Yes | 6c | 7,104$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0793…7cfabacked Yes | 2c | 7,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…648fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,907$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +171.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 6,814$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 6c | 6,616$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.