Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e32c8390a4d25a5d169df53b32ce8d893c24e837104c7c6cd550edeaf238b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,583,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,553,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,583,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 399,813$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,548.5 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked Yes | 0c | 277,718$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…15c4backed Yes | 0c | 277,718$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 182,611$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.61 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa5eb…fad1backed Yes | 0c | 138,859$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…a4f0backed Yes | 0c | 138,749$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 84,577$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.1 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 68,137$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.61 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 27,070$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.23 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 26,665$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 1c | 26,558$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635f…d431backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 19,200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 1c | 14,071$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.57 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 13,456$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 0c | 10,858$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,393$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 1c | 9,010$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 1c | 8,771$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…0d5fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,364$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 1c | 8,297$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…8fd8backed Yes | 1c | 8,010$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…52f1backed Yes | 1c | 7,909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…7737backed Yes | 1c | 7,857$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,708$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…7849backed Yes | 1c | 7,416$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…6cbdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,084$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes | 1c | 6,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,660$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…5cb1backed Yes | 2c | 6,505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -69%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,456$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 6,058$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 1c | 6,024$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 5,916$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,862$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 1c | 5,731$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,592$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 1c | 5,273$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…94bcbacked Yes | 3c | 5,037$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 19cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 5,033$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,689$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,396$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,279$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…3852backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624c…cdc7backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…ae60backed Yes | 0c | 3,572$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 1c | 3,535$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 3,418$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,076$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111d…4928backed Yes | 1c | 3,049$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,779$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,765$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac84…3430backed Yes | 1c | 2,613$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 2c | 2,597$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 1c | 2,588$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…d680backed Yes | 1c | 2,586$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…9990backed Yes | 2c | 2,422$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…2758backed Yes | 1c | 2,285$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…b15fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,269$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 2c | 2,255$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,168$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2725backed Yes | 1c | 2,150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe67…3932backed Yes | 1c | 2,067$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 2,007$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…3e23backed Yes | 1c | 1,990$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,928$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,832$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…6c59backed Yes | 2c | 1,763$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…8da9backed Yes | 1c | 1,714$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,652$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,535$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…4073backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…45a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,476$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…bb10backed Yes | 1c | 1,464$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +287.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,448$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,353$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,296$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,283$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…331abacked Yes | 1c | 1,135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…e98bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,134$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…82f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +253.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,080$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…756bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…fe4fbacked Yes | 1c | 903.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…9ad5backed Yes | 2c | 882$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…9fd6backed Yes | 2c | 859.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…bb2ebacked Yes | 2c | 847.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 2c | 811.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked Yes | 1c | 749.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.