Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e57a570056e363a16129a3985cedcdfcb484d0d799a5f527a43baf31a11bf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,861,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,353,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,861,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 149,604$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.97 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 4c | 69,088$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.09 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 2c | 55,490$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 31,959$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.04 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 28,471$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.28 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0233…5dd0backed Yes | 2c | 27,978$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 6c | 27,602$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.66 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 27,001$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.01 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Yes | 2c | 24,666$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.7 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 17,244$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.08 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 17,077$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.23 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…4099backed Yes | 3c | 15,604$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 4c | 14,736$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.38 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 13,712$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,582$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 13,307$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.67 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 12,965$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…94d5backed Yes | 8c | 12,919$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 12,871$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 5c | 12,821$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.54 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 1c | 12,363$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,893$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 11,761$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,560$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.08 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044b…6fa9backed Yes | 2c | 11,357$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 2c | 11,254$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.94 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…c9aabacked Yes | 2c | 11,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…f985backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…4a81backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…7bcabacked Yes | 1c | 9,629$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 2c | 9,541$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 5c | 9,346$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.67 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 9,284$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.49 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 9,169$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.17 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 8,760$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…ff04backed Yes | 5c | 7,542$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…2e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,495$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,334$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…5136backed Yes | 2c | 7,019$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…3233backed Yes | 2c | 6,992$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 2c | 6,822$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 2c | 6,349$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 6,336$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,293$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…fae5backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1644…a664backed Yes | 3c | 5,601$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 2c | 5,556$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,531$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,315$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes | 6c | 4,791$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.9 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…02cbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,548$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,489$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 4,452$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.71 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…4c5dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,416$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,354$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…f19dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,280$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 5c | 4,252$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.31 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,994$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 3,972$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,949$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 2c | 3,904$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 3,895$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 3c | 3,802$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…b493backed Yes | 3c | 3,747$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…419dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,746$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 7c | 3,594$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,533$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fa…5496backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +203.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 1c | 3,476$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 3,382$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 5c | 3,338$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803c…68e4backed Yes | 5c | 3,253$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d89…c640backed Yes | 5c | 3,153$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…44c8backed Yes | 5c | 3,133$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…47d5backed Yes | 2c | 3,061$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…59b7backed Yes | 6c | 3,025$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x319d…2538backed Yes | 5c | 2,964$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,908$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,898$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…9801backed Yes | 4c | 2,795$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,791$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,755$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,735$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 1c | 2,715$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 2,606$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 4c | 2,468$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…8ad0backed Yes | 3c | 2,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d7…01ccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,395$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…63a2backed Yes | 3c | 2,370$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.