TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,010,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,987,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,010,314 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18f5…12d0backed Yes0c308,836$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe759…4394backed Yes0c293,060$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes0c225,130$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.295516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes0c118,966$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.35440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbfb…6178backed Yes2c91,616$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.88714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0233…5dd0backed Yes1c57,291$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.61128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c51,471$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.89837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick12cpaid+283.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c50,205$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.2522227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c48,871$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.6813823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd75f…bcd2backed Yes1c33,816$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c31,656$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.317111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c30,351$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.037611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes2c27,000$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4847311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c25,433$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.27135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes1c25,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.183414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes0c24,343$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd8…5136backed Yes1c20,633$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5980%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes2c20,210$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.5780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4e…2ff5backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb4…712ebacked Yes1c19,777$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes2c17,100$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes4c16,101$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.891910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes2c15,788$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.15626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d9…10e7backed Yes6c15,588$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+568.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c15,503$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8811615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c15,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.61867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes1c15,000$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.81910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8f…94d5backed Yes7c14,863$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c14,175$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.98287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c13,876$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.411,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c13,327$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7525518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x55fd…5086backed Yes3c12,417$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.99224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c10,555$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.881128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0700…267bbacked Yes1c10,527$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick23cpaid+105.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x33c3…379abacked Yes2c10,518$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4261…c62fbacked Yes1c10,100$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a8…4a81backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c9,960$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c9,912$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.931995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x334c…46bfbacked Yes3c9,505$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c9,336$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.594625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c8,753$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be1…4099backed Yes1c8,700$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c8,000$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.587610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,877$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.63964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…b78bbacked Yes1c7,693$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6247…96fcbacked Yes3c7,454$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes4c6,869$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.374513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c6,688$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.541151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c6,569$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7318929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes2c6,511$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.22120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes1c6,398$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.972114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes4c6,124$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.751338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc40b…3233backed Yes2c6,056$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…59cebacked Yes1c6,051$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.162832.1%9 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+279.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes3c6,007$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+321.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,848$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.045071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes2c5,564$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9a…4841backed Yes2c5,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…f4c6backed Yes4c5,517$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.35520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+275.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes1c5,456$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.415523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c5,258$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8521831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes3c5,246$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412630.8%8 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick11cpaid+105.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes1c5,184$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c5,114$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.752476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes4c5,003$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c4,992$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.61310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes1c4,863$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.197330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc607…6b29backed Yes3c4,800$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.92615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes5c4,681$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c4,673$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.941477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes2c4,578$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c4,341$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.32934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes1c4,317$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c4,186$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.851442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c4,096$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes3c3,981$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c3,959$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.423717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes2c3,950$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.78965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e8…ff04backed Yes8c3,786$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes1c3,700$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.39410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8651backed Yes2c3,589$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.01156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Yes3c3,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,506$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.794195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes6c3,505$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214258%2 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes2c3,500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes3c3,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.327816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d4…c5ffbacked Yes4c3,500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d7…01ccbacked Yes2c3,274$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4993…aeafbacked Yes1c3,267$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.04616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c3,050$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes1c3,044$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.383925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78b3…b95abacked Yes2c3,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.983158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2388…63a2backed Yes3c2,978$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+153.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb04…ff46backed Yes1c2,934$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.98120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…44c8backed Yes4c2,860$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.11520%3 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-51.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes4c2,786$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.047732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.