TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$648,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$443,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $648,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f67…de01backed Yes0c60,608$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes2c28,689$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.3413617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c18,914$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.31626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78cf…c9aabacked Yes2c16,026$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c15,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.87867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes1c13,404$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.027513.3%10 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c13,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c12,578$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4115523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes3c10,616$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.11387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes1c10,463$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c10,375$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.791,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9f…8680backed Yes2c10,000$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.691414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe7b…3303backed Yes3c9,612$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c8,884$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.387135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c8,561$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.067611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes0c8,015$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes2c6,500$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c6,273$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.092438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1897…34cbbacked Yes6c6,161$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c6,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.237610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c5,915$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.72440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ac…55e8backed Yes2c5,640$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.52220%0 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c5,577$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.191995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes2c5,534$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.639736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes2c5,434$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.29720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c4,588$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.171477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c4,572$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.081442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c4,434$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2611615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c4,281$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.432476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…8556backed Yes4c4,174$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed Yes3c4,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.71147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-70.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406613.6%9 W · 57 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,723$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.024625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes3c3,500$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.24965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes3c3,400$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027520%15 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes1c3,127$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…ddfcbacked Yes2c3,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.992317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+97.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c2,990$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.054195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes2c2,678$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c2,541$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.44382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c2,381$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.654136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes3c2,380$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.86468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae12…4271backed Yes4c2,274$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes2c2,260$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.684825%12 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+187.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes3c2,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c2,029$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes2c1,932$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.829250%46 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes1c1,916$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5928126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e75…7ee4backed Yes1c1,875$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d82…312fbacked Yes1c1,835$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…feddbacked Yes2c1,800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01bd…8357backed Yes2c1,683$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e27…3193backed Yes2c1,649$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.57350%0 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes2c1,641$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.978224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes3c1,505$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+62.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked Yes3c1,502$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.551428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+287.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes2c1,470$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes3c1,404$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.911151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb5…c269backed Yes3c1,366$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb71b…05adbacked Yes4c1,337$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,327$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.932384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes1c1,286$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11515.9%3 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes4c1,283$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+112.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77c1…e407backed Yes2c1,232$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20417.3%3 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…f342backed Yes2c1,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…59cebacked Yes3c1,200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42832.1%9 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+279.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes2c1,075$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x092e…f908backed Yes5c1,048$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d56…046fbacked Yes2c1,020$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51250%6 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,014$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes4c1,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes2c999.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf072…cee7backed Yes3c999.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae0a…2f9ebacked Yes3c999.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked Yes5c997.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes3c949.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.317640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd754…8e70backed Yes2c935.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-75.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Yes3c913.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+84.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7a…ba81backed Yes1c909.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e1d…0e07backed Yes2c899.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c899.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes2c878.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes1c871.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461850%9 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes3c846.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3741…f15dbacked Yes4c834.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8611…d28fbacked Yes2c824.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…9fd6backed Yes2c820.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x607a…1813backed Yes3c808.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes2c804.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…d2a9backed Yes3c788.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c9…4fa3backed Yes2c780.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624c…cdc7backed Yes3c704.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.992711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed Yes3c699.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.28135.8%29 W · 52 L+13.6wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+84.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1272…f85dbacked Yes3c695.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.784334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes3c667.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes2c636.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes3c628.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4412525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.